Target Backtesting

TGT -- USA Stock  

Earnings Call  Tomorrow

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Target Corporation and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Target over given investment horizon. Also please take a look at Target Hype Analysis, Target Correlation, Target Valuation, Target Volatility as well as analyze Target Alpha and Beta and Target Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Target 'What if' Analysis

August 21, 2019
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 31 days
November 19, 2019
If you would invest  0.00  in Target on August 21, 2019 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Target Corporation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Target over 90 days. Target is related to or competes with Vipshop Holdings, Rite Aid, Sally Beauty, Sprouts Farmers, Spectrum Brands, Sysco, and Target. Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States

Target Upside/Downside Indicators

Downside Deviation1.05
Information Ratio0.1285
Maximum Drawdown23.09
Value At Risk(1.62)
Potential Upside2.33

Target Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.1327
Jensen Alpha0.31
Total Risk Alpha0.0349
Sortino Ratio0.3366
Treynor Ratio0.3362

Target Backtested Returns

We consider Target very steady. Target owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.1203 which indicates the firm had 0.1203% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Target Corporation which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the company. Please validate Target Semi Deviation of 0.6075, Coefficient Of Variation of 576.85 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1327 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.139%. Target has performance score of 8 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has beta of 1.3919 which indicates as market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Target will likely underperform. Although it is extremely important to respect Target current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting Target technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.139% will be sustainable into the future. Target right now has a risk of 1.1553%. Please validate Target Information Ratio and Downside Variance to decide if Target will be following its existing price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.11 
correlation synergy

Insignificant predictability

Target Corporation has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Target time series from August 21, 2019 to October 5, 2019 and October 5, 2019 to November 19, 2019. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Target price movement. The serial correlation of 0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current Target price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.11
Spearman Rank Test0.04
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance3.37

Target lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Target regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Target Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

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Also please take a look at Target Hype Analysis, Target Correlation, Target Valuation, Target Volatility as well as analyze Target Alpha and Beta and Target Performance. Please also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.