UGARSUGAR Backtesting

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UGARSUGAR -- India Stock  

INR 12.20  0.75  5.79%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of UGAR SUGAR WORKS and determine expected loss or profit from investing in UGAR SUGAR over given investment horizon. Also please take a look at UGAR SUGAR Hype Analysis, UGAR SUGAR Correlation, UGAR SUGAR Valuation, UGAR SUGAR Volatility as well as analyze UGAR SUGAR Alpha and Beta and UGAR SUGAR Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

UGAR SUGAR 'What if' Analysis

0.00
03/01/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 3 months and 1 day
05/30/2020
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in UGAR SUGAR on March 1, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UGAR SUGAR WORKS or generate 0.0% return on investment in UGAR SUGAR over 90 days. The Ugar Sugar Works Limited manufactures and sells sugar, and industrial and potable alcohol primarily in India

UGAR SUGAR Upside/Downside Indicators

Information Ratio(0.028478)
Maximum Drawdown32.81
Value At Risk(8.33)
Potential Upside10.1

UGAR SUGAR Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance(0.11)
Jensen Alpha(0.17)
Total Risk Alpha(0.16)
Treynor Ratio(8.35)

UGAR SUGAR WORKS Backtested Returns

We consider UGAR SUGAR slightly risky. UGAR SUGAR WORKS retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.011, which indicates the firm had 0.011% of return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. Our way of measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for UGAR SUGAR, which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the company. Please validate UGAR SUGAR WORKS Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11) to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0678%. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.02, which indicates as returns on market increase, UGAR SUGAR returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during bear market, the loss on holding UGAR SUGAR will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is extremely important to respect UGAR SUGAR WORKS existing price patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity price patterns. The way of measuring future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By evaluating UGAR SUGAR WORKS technical indicators you can today evaluate if the expected return of 0.0678% will be sustainable into the future. UGAR SUGAR WORKS now owns a risk of 6.14%. Please validate UGAR SUGAR WORKS Variance as well as the relationship between Value At Risk and Skewness to decide if UGAR SUGAR WORKS will be following its current price history.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations
15 days auto-correlation 0.04 
correlation synergy

Virtually no predictability

UGAR SUGAR WORKS has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UGAR SUGAR time series from 1st of March 2020 to 15th of April 2020 and 15th of April 2020 to 30th of May 2020. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UGAR SUGAR WORKS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current UGAR SUGAR price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.04
Spearman Rank Test0.03
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.29

UGAR SUGAR WORKS lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

UGAR SUGAR regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

UGAR SUGAR Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

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Also please take a look at UGAR SUGAR Hype Analysis, UGAR SUGAR Correlation, UGAR SUGAR Valuation, UGAR SUGAR Volatility as well as analyze UGAR SUGAR Alpha and Beta and UGAR SUGAR Performance. Please also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page