Vanguard Short Term Bond Fund Market Value
| VBISX Fund | USD 9.94 0.01 0.10% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Short-term 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Short-term's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Short-term.
| 05/04/2022 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Short-term on May 4, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Short Term Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Short-term over 720 days. Vanguard Short-term is related to or competes with Vanguard High-yield, Vanguard Intermediate-ter, Vanguard Gnma, Vanguard Inflation-protec, and Vanguard Wellesley. This index includes all medium and larger issues of U.S More
Vanguard Short-term Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Short-term's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Short Term Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.51) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2014 |
Vanguard Short-term Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Short-term's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Short-term's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Short-term historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Short-term's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.44) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Short-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Short Term Backtested Returns
Vanguard Short Term owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.04, which indicates the fund had a -0.04% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Vanguard Short Term Bond exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Vanguard Short-term's Variance of 0.0371, coefficient of variation of (2,156), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0429, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Short-term's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Short-term is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.29 |
Poor predictability
Vanguard Short Term Bond has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Short-term time series from 4th of May 2022 to 29th of April 2023 and 29th of April 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Short Term price movement. The serial correlation of 0.29 indicates that nearly 29.0% of current Vanguard Short-term price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.29 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Vanguard Short Term lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Short-term mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Short-term's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Short-term returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Short-term has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Short-term regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Short-term mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Short-term mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Short-term mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Short-term Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Short-term's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Short-term mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Short-term autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Short-term autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Short-term mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Short Term Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Vanguard Short-term technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.