Vanguard Health Care Fund Market Value
| VHCIX Fund | USD 129.00 1.68 1.32% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Health 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Health's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Health.
| 08/27/2023 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Health on August 27, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Health Care or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Health over 240 days. Vanguard Health is related to or competes with Vanguard Information, Vanguard Consumer, Vanguard Sumer, Vanguard Financials, and Vanguard Utilities. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Inde... More
Vanguard Health Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Health's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Health Care upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.6867 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.17 |
Vanguard Health Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Health's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Health's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Health historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Health's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0044 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.12) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Health Care Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard Health very steady. Vanguard Health Care owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0446, which indicates the fund had a 0.0446% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Vanguard Health Care, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Health's Coefficient Of Variation of 16765.98, risk adjusted performance of 0.0044, and Semi Deviation of 0.6731 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0306%. The entity has a beta of 0.9, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Vanguard Health returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vanguard Health is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Vanguard Health Care has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Health time series from 27th of August 2023 to 25th of December 2023 and 25th of December 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Health Care price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Vanguard Health price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 8.94 |
Vanguard Health Care lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Health mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Health's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Health returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Health has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Health regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Health mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Health mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Health mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Health Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Health's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Health mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Health autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Health autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Health mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Health Care.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanguard Health in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanguard Health's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanguard Health options trading.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Vanguard Health Correlation, Vanguard Health Volatility and Vanguard Health Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard Health. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Vanguard Health technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.