Invesco Municipal Income Fund Market Value
| VMIIX Fund | USD 11.86 0.04 0.34% |
| Symbol | Invesco |
Invesco Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Invesco Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Invesco Municipal.
| 03/19/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Invesco Municipal on March 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Invesco Municipal Income or generate 0.0% return on investment in Invesco Municipal over 30 days. Invesco Municipal is related to or competes with Vanguard Long, Vanguard High, and Strategic Advisers. Under normal market conditions, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in municipal securities at the ti... More
Invesco Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Invesco Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Invesco Municipal Income upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.28) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.51 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.34) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.335 |
Invesco Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Invesco Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Invesco Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Invesco Municipal historical prices to predict the future Invesco Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.8094 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Invesco Municipal Backtested Returns
We consider Invesco Municipal very steady. Invesco Municipal holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0307, which attests that the entity had a 0.0307% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Invesco Municipal, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Invesco Municipal's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.8194, standard deviation of 0.2363, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0071%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0246, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Invesco Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Invesco Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.75 |
Good predictability
Invesco Municipal Income has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Invesco Municipal time series from 19th of March 2024 to 3rd of April 2024 and 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Invesco Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.75 indicates that around 75.0% of current Invesco Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.75 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Invesco Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Invesco Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Invesco Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Invesco Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Invesco Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Invesco Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Invesco Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Invesco Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Invesco Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Invesco Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Invesco Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Invesco Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Invesco Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Invesco Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Invesco Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Invesco Municipal Income.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Invesco Municipal Correlation, Invesco Municipal Volatility and Invesco Municipal Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Invesco Municipal. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Invesco Municipal technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.