Vanguard New Jersey Fund Market Value
| VNJUX Fund | USD 11.25 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard New 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard New's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard New.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard New on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard New Jersey or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard New over 30 days. Vanguard New is related to or competes with Vanguard Materials, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Global, Vanguard Emerging, Vanguard Market, and Vanguard Market. The fund invests primarily in high-quality municipal bonds issued by New Jersey state and local governments, as well as ... More
Vanguard New Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard New's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard New Jersey upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.44) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2667 |
Vanguard New Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard New's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard New's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard New historical prices to predict the future Vanguard New's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.17) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard New's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard New Jersey Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard New very steady. Vanguard New Jersey owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0011, which indicates the fund had a 0.0011% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Vanguard New Jersey, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard New's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03), coefficient of variation of (4,178), and Variance of 0.0463 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 2.0E-4%. The entity has a beta of 0.0899, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard New's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard New is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.83 |
Very good predictability
Vanguard New Jersey has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard New time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard New Jersey price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current Vanguard New price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.89 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Vanguard New Jersey lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard New mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard New's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard New returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard New has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard New regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard New mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard New mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard New mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard New Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard New's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard New mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard New autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard New autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard New mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard New Jersey.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanguard New in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanguard New's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanguard New options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Vanguard New Correlation, Vanguard New Volatility and Vanguard New Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard New. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Vanguard New technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.