Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Market Value
| VWINX Fund | USD 24.41 0.02 0.08% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Wellesley 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Wellesley's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Wellesley.
| 05/24/2023 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Wellesley on May 24, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Wellesley Income or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Wellesley over 330 days. Vanguard Wellesley is related to or competes with Vanguard Wellington, Vanguard Dividend, Vanguard Gnma, Vanguard Equity, and Vanguard Short. The fund invests approximately 60 percent to 65 percent of its assets in investment-grade fixed income securities, inclu... More
Vanguard Wellesley Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Wellesley's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Wellesley Income upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.6158 |
Vanguard Wellesley Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Wellesley's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Wellesley's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Wellesley historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Wellesley's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.05) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Wellesley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Wellesley Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard Wellesley very steady. Vanguard Wellesley owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0021, which indicates the fund had a 0.0021% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Vanguard Wellesley Income, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Wellesley's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02), coefficient of variation of (3,232), and Variance of 0.1844 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 9.0E-4%. The entity has a beta of 0.52, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Wellesley's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Wellesley is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.19 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Vanguard Wellesley Income has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Wellesley time series from 24th of May 2023 to 5th of November 2023 and 5th of November 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Wellesley price movement. The serial correlation of -0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Vanguard Wellesley price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.48 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.33 |
Vanguard Wellesley lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Wellesley mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Wellesley's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Wellesley returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Wellesley has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Wellesley regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Wellesley mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Wellesley mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Wellesley mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Wellesley Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Wellesley's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Wellesley mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Wellesley autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Wellesley autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Wellesley mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Wellesley Income.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Vanguard Wellesley technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.