Exxon Backtesting

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Exxon Mobil Corporation and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Exxon over given investment horizon. See also Exxon Hype Analysis, Exxon Correlation, Exxon Valuation, Exxon Volatility as well as analyze Exxon Alpha and Beta and Exxon Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Exxon 'What if' Analysis

November 9, 2016
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
December 9, 2016
If you would invest  0.00  in Exxon on November 9, 2016 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Exxon Mobil Corporation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Exxon over 30 days. Exxon is related to or competes with FED HOME, ENI SPA, AKEBONO BRAKE, CASINO GUICHARD, INVESTOR AB, FED NATL, and MS AD. It also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals including olefins aromatics polyethylene and polypropylene pla...

Exxon Upside/Downside Indicators


Exxon Market Premium Indicators

Exxon Mobil lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
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Exxon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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Exxon Mobil Backtested Returns

We consider Exxon not too risky. Exxon Mobil secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1312 which denotes Exxon Mobil had 0.1312% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Exxon Mobil Corporation which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Exxon Mobil Coefficient Of Variation of 541.44, Mean Deviation of 0.6552 and Downside Deviation of 0.9052 to check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1113%. Exxon has performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 0.1824 which denotes to the fact that as returns on market increase, Exxon returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Exxon will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect Exxon Mobil historical returns, it is beter to be realistic about what you can do with the information about equity current trading patterns. The philosophy towards predicting future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing Exxon Mobil technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1113% will be sustainable into the future. Exxon Mobil right now shows risk of 0.8485%. Please confirm Exxon Mobil Market Risk Adjusted Performance, Variance as well as the relationship between Variance and Potential Upside to decide if Exxon Mobil will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure 
15 days auto-correlation 0.23 

Weak predictability

Exxon Mobil Corporation has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents amount of predictability between Exxon time series from November 9, 2016 to November 24, 2016 and November 24, 2016 to December 9, 2016. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Exxon Mobil price movement. The serial correlation of 0.23 indicates that over 23.0% of current Exxon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient 0.23
Spearman Rank Test 0.35
Price Variance 0.5
Lagged Price Variance 0.46

Exxon Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
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Exxon Performance vs NYSE

The median price of Exxon for the period between Wed, Nov 9, 2016 and Fri, Dec 9, 2016 is 86.82 with a coefficient of variation of 1.06. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.92, arithmetic mean of 86.6, and mean deviation of 0.76. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
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