Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

BM
KLSE -- Exotistan Index  

 1,521  20.23  1.35%

Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bursa Malaysia historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bursa Malaysia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bursa Malaysia historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out fundamental analysis of Bursa Malaysia to check your projections.

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A naive forecasting model for Bursa Malaysia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bursa Malaysia value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bursa Malaysia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of July

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of Bursa Malaysia on the next trading day is expected to be  1,482  with a mean absolute deviation of  17.78 , mean absolute percentage error of  463.79 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  1,085 
 1,482 

Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast Pattern

Bursa Malaysia Forecasted Value

Market Value
1,521
1st of July 2020
1,482
Expected Value
1,483
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria124.2499
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation17.7818
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors1084.69
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bursa Malaysia. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bursa Malaysia. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bursa Malaysia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bursa Malaysia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1,5131,5141,515
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,1351,1361,666
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bursa Malaysia

View Currently Related Equities

Bursa Malaysia Technical and Predictive Analytics

Bursa Malaysia Market Strength Events

Volatility Measures

Bursa Malaysia Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - KLSE

Bursa Malaysia Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis traders are unemotional in their take regarding direction of Bursa Malaysia Index. What is your opinion about investing in Exotistan companies? Are you bullish or bearish on Bursa Malaysia?
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Check out fundamental analysis of Bursa Malaysia to check your projections. Please also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
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