Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BM
KLSE -- Exotistan Index  

 1,521  20.23  1.35%

Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bursa Malaysia historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bursa Malaysia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bursa Malaysia historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out fundamental analysis of Bursa Malaysia to check your projections.

Search Index Forecast

 
Refresh
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bursa Malaysia works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bursa Malaysia Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of July

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of Bursa Malaysia on the next trading day is expected to be  1,521  with a mean absolute deviation of  12.86 , mean absolute percentage error of  291.79 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  758.55 
 1,521 

Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast Pattern

Bursa Malaysia Forecasted Value

Market Value
1,521
1st of July 2020
1,521
Expected Value
1,522
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.9987
MADMean absolute deviation12.8569
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0089
SAESum of the absolute errors758.5542
When Bursa Malaysia prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Bursa Malaysia trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bursa Malaysia observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bursa Malaysia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bursa Malaysia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1,5131,5141,515
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,1351,1361,666
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bursa Malaysia

View Currently Related Equities

Bursa Malaysia Technical and Predictive Analytics

Bursa Malaysia Market Strength Events

Volatility Measures

Bursa Malaysia Risk Indicators

Did you try this?

Run Balance Of Power Now

   

Balance Of Power

Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
All  Next Launch Module

Also Currentnly Active

<div class='circular--portrait-small' style='font-weight: 700;background:#FF6600;color: #FFFAFA;font-size:0.9em;padding-top: 12px;;'>VIS</div>
Purchased few shares of
22 hours ago
Traded for 193.17
<div class='circular--portrait-small' style='font-weight: 700;background:#FF6600;color: #FFFAFA;font-size:0.9em;padding-top: 12px;;'>VIS</div>
Purchased few shares of
22 hours ago
Traded for 193.17
<div class='circular--portrait-small' style='font-weight: 700;background:#347AFC;color: #ffffff;font-size:0.9em;padding-top: 12px;;'>VMW</div>
Purchased a lot of shares of
22 hours ago
Traded for 154.86
Check out fundamental analysis of Bursa Malaysia to check your projections. Please also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page