Abeona Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ABEO Stock  USD 7.34  0.02  0.27%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Abeona Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.49 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.25  and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.48. Abeona Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Abeona Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Abeona Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Abeona Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Abeona Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Abeona Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Abeona Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abeona Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Abeona Stock, please use our How to Invest in Abeona Therapeutics guide.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 2.06, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 0.87. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 22.4 M, while Net Loss is likely to drop (41.1 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Abeona Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Abeona Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Abeona Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Abeona Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Abeona Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Abeona Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Abeona Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Abeona. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Abeona Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Abeona Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Abeona Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Abeona Therapeutics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Abeona Therapeutics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Abeona Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Abeona Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Abeona Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Abeona Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Abeona Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Abeona TherapeuticsAbeona Therapeutics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Abeona Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Abeona Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Abeona Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.72 and 13.25, respectively. We have considered Abeona Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.34
7.49
Expected Value
13.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Abeona Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Abeona Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8231
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2496
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0413
SAESum of the absolute errors15.4751
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Abeona Therapeutics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Abeona Therapeutics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Abeona Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Abeona Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Abeona Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.157.9113.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.5910.3516.11
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.6620.5022.76
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.63-0.56-0.5
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Abeona Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Abeona Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Abeona Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Abeona Therapeutics.

Other Forecasting Options for Abeona Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Abeona, whether a beginner or expert, Abeona Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Abeona Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Abeona. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Abeona Therapeutics' price trends.

Abeona Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Abeona Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Abeona Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Abeona Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Abeona Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Abeona Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Abeona Therapeutics' current price.

Abeona Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Abeona Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Abeona Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Abeona Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Abeona Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Abeona Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Abeona Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Abeona Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abeona stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Abeona Therapeutics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Abeona Therapeutics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Abeona Therapeutics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Abeona Stock

  0.65MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.89EQ Equillium Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Abeona Stock

  0.8KA Kineta Inc Report 29th of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.79TFX Teleflex Incorporated Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.66DBVT DBV Technologies Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.64MEIP MEI Pharma Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.64VALN Valneva SE ADR Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Abeona Therapeutics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Abeona Therapeutics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Abeona Therapeutics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Abeona Therapeutics to buy it.
The correlation of Abeona Therapeutics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Abeona Therapeutics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Abeona Therapeutics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Abeona Therapeutics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Abeona Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Abeona Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Abeona Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Abeona Therapeutics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abeona Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Abeona Stock, please use our How to Invest in Abeona Therapeutics guide.
Note that the Abeona Therapeutics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Abeona Therapeutics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Abeona Stock analysis

When running Abeona Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Abeona Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Abeona Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Abeona Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Abeona Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Abeona Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Abeona Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Abeona Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Abeona Therapeutics. If investors know Abeona will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Abeona Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(2.53)
Revenue Per Share
0.164
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(1.00)
Return On Assets
(0.47)
Return On Equity
(2.61)
The market value of Abeona Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abeona that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abeona Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abeona Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abeona Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abeona Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abeona Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Abeona Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abeona Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.