ACI INFOCOM Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACIIN -  India Stock  

INR 0.76  0.02  2.70%

ACIIN stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ACI INFOCOM historical stock prices and determine the direction of ACI INFOCOM LTD's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ACI INFOCOM historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ACI INFOCOM to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in ACI INFOCOM cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ACI INFOCOM's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ACI INFOCOM's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ACI INFOCOM is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ACI INFOCOM LTD value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ACI INFOCOM Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ACI INFOCOM LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 0.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.009847, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001657, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.60. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ACIIN stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ACI INFOCOM's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ACI INFOCOM Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ACI INFOCOMACI INFOCOM Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ACI INFOCOM Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ACI INFOCOM's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ACI INFOCOM's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0076 and 4.05, respectively. We have considered ACI INFOCOM's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.76
21st of June 2021
0.0076
Downside
0.77
Expected Value
4.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ACI INFOCOM stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ACI INFOCOM stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.4052
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0098
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0287
SAESum of the absolute errors0.6006
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ACI INFOCOM LTD. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ACI INFOCOM. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ACI INFOCOM

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACI INFOCOM LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ACI INFOCOM's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ACI INFOCOM in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.040.764.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.030.643.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.140.450.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ACI INFOCOM. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ACI INFOCOM's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ACI INFOCOM's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ACI INFOCOM LTD.

Other Forecasting Options for ACI INFOCOM

For every potential investor in ACIIN, whether a beginner or expert, ACI INFOCOM's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ACIIN stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ACIIN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ACI INFOCOM's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ACI INFOCOM stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ACI INFOCOM could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ACI INFOCOM by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

ACI INFOCOM LTD Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ACI INFOCOM's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ACI INFOCOM's current price.

ACI INFOCOM Risk Indicators

The analysis of ACI INFOCOM's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ACI INFOCOM's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ACI INFOCOM stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

ACI INFOCOM Investors Sentiment

The influence of ACI INFOCOM's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in ACIIN. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - ACIIN

ACI INFOCOM LTD Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in ACI INFOCOM LTD. What is your sentiment towards investing in ACI INFOCOM LTD? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with ACI INFOCOM

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ACI INFOCOM position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ACI INFOCOM will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

ACI INFOCOM Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ACI INFOCOM and Baroda ELSS 96. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ACI INFOCOM to cross-verify your projections. Note that the ACI INFOCOM LTD information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ACI INFOCOM's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Other Tools for ACIIN stock

When running ACI INFOCOM LTD price analysis, check to measure ACI INFOCOM's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ACI INFOCOM is operating at the current time. Most of ACI INFOCOM's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ACI INFOCOM's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ACI INFOCOM's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ACI INFOCOM to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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