Agile Thrpe Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AGRX Stock  USD 0.37  0.04  12.12%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agile Thrpe on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.07  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.30. Agile Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Agile Thrpe stock prices and determine the direction of Agile Thrpe's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Agile Thrpe's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Agile Thrpe's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agile Thrpe's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agile Thrpe fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agile Thrpe to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Agile Stock please use our How to Invest in Agile Thrpe guide.
  
At this time, Agile Thrpe's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 11.80 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 0.46 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 521.9 K in 2024, despite the fact that Net Loss is likely to grow to (64 M).
Most investors in Agile Thrpe cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Agile Thrpe's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Agile Thrpe's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Agile Thrpe is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Agile Thrpe value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Agile Thrpe Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agile Thrpe on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agile Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agile Thrpe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Agile Thrpe Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Agile ThrpeAgile Thrpe Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Agile Thrpe Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Agile Thrpe's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agile Thrpe's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 8.33, respectively. We have considered Agile Thrpe's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.37
0.24
Expected Value
8.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agile Thrpe stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agile Thrpe stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.0196
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0693
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0684
SAESum of the absolute errors4.2955
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Agile Thrpe. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Agile Thrpe. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Agile Thrpe

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agile Thrpe. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agile Thrpe's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.268.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.3362.7770.87
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
227.50250.00277.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agile Thrpe. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agile Thrpe's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agile Thrpe's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Agile Thrpe.

Other Forecasting Options for Agile Thrpe

For every potential investor in Agile, whether a beginner or expert, Agile Thrpe's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agile Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agile. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agile Thrpe's price trends.

Agile Thrpe Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agile Thrpe stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agile Thrpe could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agile Thrpe by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Agile Thrpe Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agile Thrpe's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agile Thrpe's current price.

Agile Thrpe Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agile Thrpe stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agile Thrpe shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agile Thrpe stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agile Thrpe entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Agile Thrpe Risk Indicators

The analysis of Agile Thrpe's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agile Thrpe's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agile stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Agile Thrpe

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agile Thrpe position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agile Thrpe will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Agile Stock

  0.67MBIO Mustang Bio Report 3rd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.82MCRB Seres Therapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Agile Stock

  0.93DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.9EQ Equillium Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.88MDWD Mediwound Financial Report 4th of June 2024 PairCorr
  0.8TCRX Tscan Therapeutics Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.74MGNX MacroGenics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agile Thrpe could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agile Thrpe when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agile Thrpe - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agile Thrpe to buy it.
The correlation of Agile Thrpe is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agile Thrpe moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agile Thrpe moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agile Thrpe can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Agile Thrpe offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Agile Thrpe's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Agile Thrpe Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Agile Thrpe Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agile Thrpe to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Agile Stock please use our How to Invest in Agile Thrpe guide.
You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

Complementary Tools for Agile Stock analysis

When running Agile Thrpe's price analysis, check to measure Agile Thrpe's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agile Thrpe is operating at the current time. Most of Agile Thrpe's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agile Thrpe's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agile Thrpe's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agile Thrpe to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
CEOs Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Sign In To Macroaxis
Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Is Agile Thrpe's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agile Thrpe. If investors know Agile will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agile Thrpe listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
7.31
Revenue Per Share
12.324
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.219
Return On Assets
(0.97)
Return On Equity
(13.64)
The market value of Agile Thrpe is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agile that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agile Thrpe's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agile Thrpe's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agile Thrpe's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agile Thrpe's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agile Thrpe's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agile Thrpe is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agile Thrpe's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.