Aama Equity Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AMFEX Fund  USD 18.21  0.03  0.17%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aama Equity Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.11 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.10  and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77. Aama Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aama Equity stock prices and determine the direction of Aama Equity Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aama Equity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aama Equity to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Aama Equity cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aama Equity's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aama Equity's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Aama Equity Fund is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Aama Equity 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aama Equity Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aama Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aama Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aama Equity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aama EquityAama Equity Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aama Equity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aama Equity's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aama Equity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.53 and 18.70, respectively. We have considered Aama Equity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.21
18.11
Expected Value
18.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aama Equity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aama Equity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.5307
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0678
MADMean absolute deviation0.1012
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0058
SAESum of the absolute errors5.7675
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Aama Equity. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Aama Equity Fund and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Aama Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aama Equity Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aama Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.6018.1818.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.3117.8918.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.9418.0818.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aama Equity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aama Equity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aama Equity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aama Equity Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for Aama Equity

For every potential investor in Aama, whether a beginner or expert, Aama Equity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aama Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aama. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aama Equity's price trends.

Aama Equity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aama Equity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aama Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aama Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aama Equity Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aama Equity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aama Equity's current price.

Aama Equity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aama Equity mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aama Equity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aama Equity mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aama Equity Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aama Equity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aama Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aama Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aama mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Aama Equity

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aama Equity position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aama Equity will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Aama Mutual Fund

  0.98STFGX State Farm GrowthPairCorr
  0.98VTSAX Vanguard Total StockPairCorr
  0.98VFIAX Vanguard 500 IndexPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aama Equity could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aama Equity when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aama Equity - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aama Equity Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Aama Equity is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aama Equity moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aama Equity Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aama Equity can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aama Equity to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Aama Equity Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aama Equity's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Aama Equity's price analysis, check to measure Aama Equity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aama Equity is operating at the current time. Most of Aama Equity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aama Equity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aama Equity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aama Equity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Aama Equity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aama Equity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aama Equity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.