Abercrombie Fitch Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ANF Stock  USD 121.36  0.61  0.50%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Abercrombie Fitch on the next trading day is expected to be 122.43 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.18  and the sum of the absolute errors of 197.35. Abercrombie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Abercrombie Fitch stock prices and determine the direction of Abercrombie Fitch's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Abercrombie Fitch's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Abercrombie Fitch's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Abercrombie Fitch's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Abercrombie Fitch fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abercrombie Fitch to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Abercrombie Stock please use our How to Invest in Abercrombie Fitch guide.
  
At this time, Abercrombie Fitch's Receivables Turnover is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The Abercrombie Fitch's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 1.76, while Payables Turnover is projected to decrease to 5.53. . The Abercrombie Fitch's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 67 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 2.4 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Abercrombie Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Abercrombie Fitch's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Abercrombie Fitch's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Abercrombie Fitch stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Abercrombie Fitch's open interest, investors have to compare it to Abercrombie Fitch's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Abercrombie Fitch is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Abercrombie. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Abercrombie Fitch cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Abercrombie Fitch's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Abercrombie Fitch's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Abercrombie Fitch is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Abercrombie Fitch value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Abercrombie Fitch Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Abercrombie Fitch on the next trading day is expected to be 122.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.18, mean absolute percentage error of 19.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 197.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Abercrombie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Abercrombie Fitch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Abercrombie Fitch Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Abercrombie FitchAbercrombie Fitch Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Abercrombie Fitch Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Abercrombie Fitch's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Abercrombie Fitch's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 119.39 and 125.48, respectively. We have considered Abercrombie Fitch's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
121.36
119.39
Downside
122.43
Expected Value
125.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Abercrombie Fitch stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Abercrombie Fitch stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.9102
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.183
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0269
SAESum of the absolute errors197.3458
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Abercrombie Fitch. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Abercrombie Fitch. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Abercrombie Fitch

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Abercrombie Fitch. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Abercrombie Fitch's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
119.50122.55125.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
85.2188.26133.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
120.82121.50122.18
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
53.2458.5064.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Abercrombie Fitch. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Abercrombie Fitch's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Abercrombie Fitch's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Abercrombie Fitch.

Other Forecasting Options for Abercrombie Fitch

For every potential investor in Abercrombie, whether a beginner or expert, Abercrombie Fitch's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Abercrombie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Abercrombie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Abercrombie Fitch's price trends.

Abercrombie Fitch Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Abercrombie Fitch stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Abercrombie Fitch could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Abercrombie Fitch by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Abercrombie Fitch Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Abercrombie Fitch's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Abercrombie Fitch's current price.

Abercrombie Fitch Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Abercrombie Fitch stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Abercrombie Fitch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Abercrombie Fitch stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Abercrombie Fitch entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Abercrombie Fitch Risk Indicators

The analysis of Abercrombie Fitch's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Abercrombie Fitch's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abercrombie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Abercrombie Fitch Investors Sentiment

The influence of Abercrombie Fitch's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Abercrombie. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Abercrombie Fitch's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Abercrombie. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Abercrombie can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Abercrombie Fitch. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Abercrombie Fitch's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Abercrombie Fitch's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Abercrombie Fitch's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Abercrombie Fitch.

Abercrombie Fitch Implied Volatility

    
  65.31  
Abercrombie Fitch's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Abercrombie Fitch stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Abercrombie Fitch's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Abercrombie Fitch stock will not fluctuate a lot when Abercrombie Fitch's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Abercrombie Fitch in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Abercrombie Fitch's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Abercrombie Fitch options trading.

Pair Trading with Abercrombie Fitch

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Abercrombie Fitch position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Abercrombie Fitch will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Abercrombie Stock

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Moving against Abercrombie Stock

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  0.88BQ Boqii Holding LimitedPairCorr
  0.79DLTH Duluth Holdings Financial Report 6th of June 2024 PairCorr
  0.77BGI Birks GroupPairCorr
  0.59FNKO Funko Inc Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Abercrombie Fitch could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Abercrombie Fitch when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Abercrombie Fitch - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Abercrombie Fitch to buy it.
The correlation of Abercrombie Fitch is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Abercrombie Fitch moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Abercrombie Fitch moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Abercrombie Fitch can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Abercrombie Fitch is a strong investment it is important to analyze Abercrombie Fitch's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Abercrombie Fitch's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Abercrombie Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abercrombie Fitch to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Abercrombie Stock please use our How to Invest in Abercrombie Fitch guide.
You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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Is Abercrombie Fitch's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Abercrombie Fitch. If investors know Abercrombie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Abercrombie Fitch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.994
Earnings Share
6.22
Revenue Per Share
85.188
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.211
Return On Assets
0.1075
The market value of Abercrombie Fitch is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abercrombie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abercrombie Fitch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abercrombie Fitch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abercrombie Fitch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abercrombie Fitch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abercrombie Fitch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Abercrombie Fitch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abercrombie Fitch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.