Unknown Indicator

A naive forecasting model for equity instruments is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of price value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of price. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict equity instruments. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Naive Prediction In A Nutshell

When using the naïve prediction, it is good for only a time series. Knowing how to compare and use data is important because there are hundreds upon hundreds of ways to analyze data and you have to be sure you are effectively analyzing the data.

If you find yourself looking at data, using naïve prediction is typically used as the benchmark predication, and takes previous data and does not alter it, allowing you to use other prediction models against it to see how they are doing.

Closer Look at Naive Prediction

Another aspect to look using naïve prediction is there could be seasonality in the market you are examining and this approach may not be the best to use. There are other factors to keep in mind such as drift and a shift in the average.

These are in depth formulas that can be manipulated and changed, but it is important to understand what goes into the equation because with that you can narrow in on the specific data that may be altering the results. There are many different resources to use on the Internet so be sure to fully understand what is happening before using this in your current setup. Join an investing group and see if other people are using this as you may find it is not widely used due to a various of reasons. Also, check out Macroaxis as there are many useful tools that can help expand your current trading setup.

Trending Themes

If you are a self-driven investor, you will appreciate our idea-generating investing themes. Our themes help you align your investments inspirations with your core values and are essential building blocks of your portfolios. A typical investing theme is an unweighted collection of up to 20 funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of equities with common characteristics such as industry and growth potential, volatility, or market segment.
Corona Opportunity Idea
Corona Opportunity
Invested few shares
Blockchain Idea
Blockchain
Invested a lot of shares
Macroaxis Picks Idea
Macroaxis Picks
Invested over 100 shares
Macroaxis Index Idea
Macroaxis Index
Invested few shares
Momentum Idea
Momentum
Invested over 40 shares
Check out your portfolio center.
Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.

Other Complementary Tools

Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Top Crypto Exchanges
Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope