Churchill Downs Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CHDN Stock  USD 124.28  3.51  2.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Churchill Downs Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 127.39 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.57  and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.45. Churchill Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Churchill Downs stock prices and determine the direction of Churchill Downs Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Churchill Downs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Churchill Downs' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Churchill Downs' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Churchill Downs fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Churchill Downs to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Churchill Downs' Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.46, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 9.77. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 86.1 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 530.6 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Churchill Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Churchill Downs' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Churchill Downs' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Churchill Downs stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Churchill Downs' open interest, investors have to compare it to Churchill Downs' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Churchill Downs is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Churchill. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Churchill Downs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Churchill Downs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Churchill Downs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Churchill Downs is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Churchill Downs Incorporated value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Churchill Downs Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Churchill Downs Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 127.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 3.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Churchill Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Churchill Downs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Churchill Downs Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Churchill DownsChurchill Downs Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Churchill Downs Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Churchill Downs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Churchill Downs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.87 and 128.92, respectively. We have considered Churchill Downs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
124.28
125.87
Downside
127.39
Expected Value
128.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Churchill Downs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Churchill Downs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.2984
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5718
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors97.4502
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Churchill Downs Incorporated. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Churchill Downs. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs rporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
122.71124.19125.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
111.85134.30135.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
115.48120.90126.32
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
131.72144.75160.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Churchill Downs. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Churchill Downs' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Churchill Downs' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Churchill Downs rporated.

Other Forecasting Options for Churchill Downs

For every potential investor in Churchill, whether a beginner or expert, Churchill Downs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Churchill Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Churchill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Churchill Downs' price trends.

Churchill Downs Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Churchill Downs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Churchill Downs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Churchill Downs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Churchill Downs rporated Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Churchill Downs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Churchill Downs' current price.

Churchill Downs Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Churchill Downs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Churchill Downs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Churchill Downs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Churchill Downs Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Churchill Downs Risk Indicators

The analysis of Churchill Downs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Churchill Downs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting churchill stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Churchill Downs

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Churchill Downs position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Churchill Downs will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Churchill Stock

  0.74DNUT Krispy Kreme TrendingPairCorr

Moving against Churchill Stock

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  0.74FUN Cedar Fair LP Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.71FWRG First Watch Restaurant Financial Report 7th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.68CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Financial Report 23rd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.63CDROW Codere Online LuxembourgPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Churchill Downs could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Churchill Downs when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Churchill Downs - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Churchill Downs Incorporated to buy it.
The correlation of Churchill Downs is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Churchill Downs moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Churchill Downs rporated moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Churchill Downs can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Churchill Downs rporated offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Churchill Downs' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Churchill Downs to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Churchill Downs rporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Churchill Downs' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

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Is Churchill Downs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
56.156
Dividend Share
0.382
Earnings Share
5.49
Revenue Per Share
32.735
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.169
The market value of Churchill Downs rporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.