Donegal Group Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DGICA Stock  USD 14.04  0.32  2.33%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Donegal Group A on the next trading day is expected to be 13.97 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.18  and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.46. Donegal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Donegal Group stock prices and determine the direction of Donegal Group A's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Donegal Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Donegal Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Donegal Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Donegal Group fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Donegal Group to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 369.75, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 0.00. . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 22.8 M. The current year's Net Loss is expected to grow to about (1.7 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Donegal Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Donegal Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Donegal Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Donegal Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Donegal Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Donegal Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Donegal Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Donegal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Donegal Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Donegal Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Donegal Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Donegal Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Donegal Group A value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Donegal Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Donegal Group A on the next trading day is expected to be 13.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Donegal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Donegal Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Donegal Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Donegal GroupDonegal Group Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Donegal Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Donegal Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Donegal Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.28 and 15.67, respectively. We have considered Donegal Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.04
13.97
Expected Value
15.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Donegal Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Donegal Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9398
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1848
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors11.4576
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Donegal Group A. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Donegal Group. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Donegal Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Donegal Group A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Donegal Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.3514.0415.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.3614.0515.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.5513.8414.13
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.7414.0015.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Donegal Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Donegal Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Donegal Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Donegal Group A.

Other Forecasting Options for Donegal Group

For every potential investor in Donegal, whether a beginner or expert, Donegal Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Donegal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Donegal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Donegal Group's price trends.

Donegal Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Donegal Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Donegal Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Donegal Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Donegal Group A Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Donegal Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Donegal Group's current price.

Donegal Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Donegal Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Donegal Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Donegal Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Donegal Group A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Donegal Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Donegal Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Donegal Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting donegal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Donegal Group

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Donegal Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Donegal Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Donegal Stock

  0.54DOMA Doma HoldingsPairCorr
  0.46FRFHF Fairfax FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Donegal Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Donegal Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Donegal Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Donegal Group A to buy it.
The correlation of Donegal Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Donegal Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Donegal Group A moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Donegal Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Donegal Group A offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Donegal Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Donegal Group A Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Donegal Group A Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Donegal Group to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Donegal Group A information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Donegal Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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Is Donegal Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Donegal Group. If investors know Donegal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Donegal Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.62)
Dividend Share
0.675
Earnings Share
0.14
Revenue Per Share
28.062
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.072
The market value of Donegal Group A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Donegal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Donegal Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Donegal Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Donegal Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Donegal Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Donegal Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Donegal Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Donegal Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.