Jacobs Solutions Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

J Stock  USD 153.73  0.80  0.52%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jacobs Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 154.18 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.28  and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.62. Jacobs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jacobs Solutions stock prices and determine the direction of Jacobs Solutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jacobs Solutions' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Jacobs Solutions' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Jacobs Solutions' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Jacobs Solutions fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jacobs Solutions to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Jacobs Stock please use our How to buy in Jacobs Stock guide.
  
At this time, Jacobs Solutions' Payables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 22.61 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 55.05. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to pull down to about 121.5 M. The value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to pull down to about 455.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Jacobs Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jacobs Solutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Jacobs Solutions' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Jacobs Solutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jacobs Solutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Jacobs Solutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jacobs Solutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jacobs. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Jacobs Solutions cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jacobs Solutions' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jacobs Solutions' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Jacobs Solutions - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Jacobs Solutions prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Jacobs Solutions price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Jacobs Solutions.

Jacobs Solutions Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jacobs Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 154.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 2.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jacobs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jacobs Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jacobs Solutions Stock Forecast Pattern

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Jacobs Solutions Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jacobs Solutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jacobs Solutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 153.14 and 155.23, respectively. We have considered Jacobs Solutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
153.73
153.14
Downside
154.18
Expected Value
155.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jacobs Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jacobs Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2386
MADMean absolute deviation1.2818
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0091
SAESum of the absolute errors75.6244
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Jacobs Solutions observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Jacobs Solutions observations.

Predictive Modules for Jacobs Solutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jacobs Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jacobs Solutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
151.93152.97154.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
137.64166.54167.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
148.57151.13153.69
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
146.06160.50178.16
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jacobs Solutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jacobs Solutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jacobs Solutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Jacobs Solutions.

Other Forecasting Options for Jacobs Solutions

For every potential investor in Jacobs, whether a beginner or expert, Jacobs Solutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jacobs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jacobs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jacobs Solutions' price trends.

Jacobs Solutions Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jacobs Solutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jacobs Solutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jacobs Solutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jacobs Solutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jacobs Solutions' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jacobs Solutions' current price.

Jacobs Solutions Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jacobs Solutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jacobs Solutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jacobs Solutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jacobs Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jacobs Solutions Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jacobs Solutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jacobs Solutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jacobs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Jacobs Solutions Investors Sentiment

The influence of Jacobs Solutions' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Jacobs. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Jacobs Solutions' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Jacobs. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Jacobs can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Jacobs Solutions. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Jacobs Solutions' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Jacobs Solutions' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Jacobs Solutions' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Jacobs Solutions.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Jacobs Solutions in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Jacobs Solutions' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Jacobs Solutions options trading.

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When determining whether Jacobs Solutions is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Jacobs Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Jacobs Solutions Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Jacobs Solutions Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jacobs Solutions to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Jacobs Stock please use our How to buy in Jacobs Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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When running Jacobs Solutions' price analysis, check to measure Jacobs Solutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jacobs Solutions is operating at the current time. Most of Jacobs Solutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jacobs Solutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jacobs Solutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jacobs Solutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Jacobs Solutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jacobs Solutions. If investors know Jacobs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jacobs Solutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.283
Dividend Share
1.04
Earnings Share
5.61
Revenue Per Share
132.194
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.095
The market value of Jacobs Solutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jacobs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jacobs Solutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jacobs Solutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jacobs Solutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jacobs Solutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jacobs Solutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jacobs Solutions is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jacobs Solutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.