KemPharm Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KMPHDelisted Stock | USD 5.81 0.02 0.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of KemPharm on the next trading day is expected to be 6.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52. KemPharm Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast KemPharm stock prices and determine the direction of KemPharm's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KemPharm's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. KemPharm |
Most investors in KemPharm cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the KemPharm's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets KemPharm's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for KemPharm is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of KemPharm value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. KemPharm Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of KemPharm on the next trading day is expected to be 6.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KemPharm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KemPharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KemPharm Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest KemPharm | KemPharm Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KemPharm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KemPharm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3785 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1889 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.036 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.5222 |
Predictive Modules for KemPharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KemPharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KemPharm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KemPharm Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KemPharm stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KemPharm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KemPharm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KemPharm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KemPharm stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KemPharm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KemPharm stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KemPharm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KemPharm Risk Indicators
The analysis of KemPharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KemPharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kempharm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.27 | |||
| Variance | 10.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Other Consideration for investing in KemPharm Stock
If you are still planning to invest in KemPharm check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the KemPharm's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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