LightPath Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LPTH Stock | USD 1.44 0.03 2.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LightPath Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.21. LightPath Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LightPath Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of LightPath Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LightPath Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although LightPath Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of LightPath Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of LightPath Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LightPath Technologies to cross-verify your projections. LightPath |
Most investors in LightPath Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the LightPath Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets LightPath Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for LightPath Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of LightPath Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. LightPath Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LightPath Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LightPath Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LightPath Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LightPath Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LightPath Technologies | LightPath Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LightPath Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LightPath Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LightPath Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.91, respectively. We have considered LightPath Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LightPath Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LightPath Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.9543 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0362 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2079 |
Predictive Modules for LightPath Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LightPath Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LightPath Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for LightPath Technologies
For every potential investor in LightPath, whether a beginner or expert, LightPath Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LightPath Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LightPath. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LightPath Technologies' price trends.LightPath Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LightPath Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LightPath Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LightPath Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LightPath Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LightPath Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LightPath Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LightPath Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LightPath Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LightPath Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LightPath Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LightPath Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LightPath Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of LightPath Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LightPath Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lightpath stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.51 | |||
| Variance | 12.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards LightPath Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, LightPath Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from LightPath Technologies options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LightPath Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in LightPath Stock please use our How to Invest in LightPath Technologies guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for LightPath Stock analysis
When running LightPath Technologies' price analysis, check to measure LightPath Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LightPath Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of LightPath Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LightPath Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LightPath Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LightPath Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences |
Is LightPath Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LightPath Technologies. If investors know LightPath will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LightPath Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 49.113 | Earnings Share (0.13) | Revenue Per Share 0.883 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) | Return On Assets (0.06) |
The market value of LightPath Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LightPath that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LightPath Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LightPath Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LightPath Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LightPath Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LightPath Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LightPath Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LightPath Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.