MFS Value Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

MV
MEIKX -- USA Fund  

USD 38.52  0.64  1.69%

MFS Value Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MFS Value historical stock prices and determine the direction of MFS Value Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of MFS Value historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Value to cross-verify your projections.

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Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for MFS Value works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

MFS Value Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of July 2020

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of MFS Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be  38.55  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.72 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.84 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  42.32 
 38.55 

MFS Value Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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MFS Value Forecasted Value

Market Value
38.52
13th of July 2020
38.55
Expected Value
40.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.134
MADMean absolute deviation0.7172
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors42.3161
When MFS Value Fund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any MFS Value Fund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent MFS Value observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for MFS Value

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MFS Value Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.3038.5240.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.8236.0442.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.9138.4138.91
Details

Other Forecasting Options for MFS Value

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MFS Value Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

Volatility Measures

MFS Value Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - MEIKX

MFS Value Fund Investor Sentiment

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Value to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page