MFS Value Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MV
MEIKX -- USA Fund  

USD 38.52  0.08  0.21%

MFS Value Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MFS Value historical stock prices and determine the direction of MFS Value Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of MFS Value historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Value to cross-verify your projections.

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MFS Value simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for MFS Value Fund are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as MFS Value Fund prices get older.

MFS Value Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of July 2020

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of MFS Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be  38.52  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.59 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.63 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  35.93 
 38.52 

MFS Value Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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MFS Value Forecasted Value

Market Value
38.52
14th of July 2020
38.52
Expected Value
40.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6542
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0461
MADMean absolute deviation0.589
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors35.93
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting MFS Value Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent MFS Value observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for MFS Value

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MFS Value Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.3538.5240.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35.2137.3839.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.4538.4939.53
Details

Other Forecasting Options for MFS Value

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MFS Value Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

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MFS Value Risk Indicators

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Value to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of macroaxis ideas.
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