Micron Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MU Stock | USD 111.78 0.68 0.60% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 100.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 213.55. Micron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Micron Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Micron Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Micron Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Micron Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Micron Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Micron Technology fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections. Micron |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Micron Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Micron Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Micron Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Micron Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Micron Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Micron Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Micron Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Micron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Micron Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Micron Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Micron Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Micron Technology is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Micron Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Micron Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 100.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44, mean absolute percentage error of 20.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 213.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Micron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Micron Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Micron Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Micron Technology | Micron Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Micron Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Micron Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Micron Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.04 and 103.33, respectively. We have considered Micron Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Micron Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Micron Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9808 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4443 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0345 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 213.5489 |
Predictive Modules for Micron Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Micron Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Micron Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Micron Technology
For every potential investor in Micron, whether a beginner or expert, Micron Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Micron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Micron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Micron Technology's price trends.Micron Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Micron Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Micron Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Micron Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Micron Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Micron Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Micron Technology's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Micron Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Micron Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Micron Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Micron Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Micron Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 848278.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.14) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 111.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 111.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.68) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 97.52 |
Micron Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Micron Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Micron Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting micron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Variance | 9.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Micron Technology Investors Sentiment
The influence of Micron Technology's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Micron. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Micron Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Micron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Micron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Micron Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Micron Technology's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Micron Technology's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Micron Technology's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Micron Technology.
Micron Technology Implied Volatility | 69.67 |
Micron Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Micron Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Micron Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Micron Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Micron Technology's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Micron Technology in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Micron Technology's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Micron Technology options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Micron Stock please use our How to Invest in Micron Technology guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Micron Stock analysis
When running Micron Technology's price analysis, check to measure Micron Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Micron Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Micron Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Micron Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Micron Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Micron Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Micron Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Micron Technology. If investors know Micron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Micron Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Dividend Share 0.46 | Earnings Share (3.44) | Revenue Per Share 16.67 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.577 |
The market value of Micron Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Micron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Micron Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Micron Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Micron Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Micron Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Micron Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Micron Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Micron Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.