Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PEB Stock  USD 15.41  0.17  1.09%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 15.48 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.53. Pebblebrook Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pebblebrook Hotel stock prices and determine the direction of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Pebblebrook Hotel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pebblebrook Hotel fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year's Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 0.16, whereas Payables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 3.92. . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 87.9 M. The current year's Net Loss is expected to grow to about (106.1 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Pebblebrook Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Pebblebrook Hotel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Pebblebrook Hotel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Pebblebrook Hotel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Pebblebrook Hotel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Pebblebrook Hotel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Pebblebrook Hotel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Pebblebrook. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Pebblebrook Hotel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Pebblebrook Hotel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Pebblebrook Hotel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Pebblebrook Hotel is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Pebblebrook Hotel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 15.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pebblebrook Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pebblebrook Hotel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pebblebrook HotelPebblebrook Hotel Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Pebblebrook Hotel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pebblebrook Hotel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pebblebrook Hotel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.64 and 17.32, respectively. We have considered Pebblebrook Hotel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.41
15.48
Expected Value
17.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pebblebrook Hotel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pebblebrook Hotel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5975
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2381
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors14.5264
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Pebblebrook Hotel. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Pebblebrook Hotel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pebblebrook Hotel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.7415.5817.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.7814.6216.46
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.6016.0417.80
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.48-0.45-0.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pebblebrook Hotel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pebblebrook Hotel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pebblebrook Hotel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pebblebrook Hotel Trust.

Other Forecasting Options for Pebblebrook Hotel

For every potential investor in Pebblebrook, whether a beginner or expert, Pebblebrook Hotel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pebblebrook Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pebblebrook. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pebblebrook Hotel's price trends.

Pebblebrook Hotel Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pebblebrook Hotel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pebblebrook Hotel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pebblebrook Hotel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pebblebrook Hotel's current price.

Pebblebrook Hotel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pebblebrook Hotel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pebblebrook Hotel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pebblebrook Hotel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pebblebrook Hotel Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pebblebrook Hotel Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pebblebrook Hotel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pebblebrook stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Pebblebrook Hotel Trust using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
When determining whether Pebblebrook Hotel Trust offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Pebblebrook Hotel's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Pebblebrook Hotel Trust Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Pebblebrook Hotel Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Pebblebrook Hotel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.

Complementary Tools for Pebblebrook Stock analysis

When running Pebblebrook Hotel's price analysis, check to measure Pebblebrook Hotel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pebblebrook Hotel is operating at the current time. Most of Pebblebrook Hotel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pebblebrook Hotel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pebblebrook Hotel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pebblebrook Hotel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
CEOs Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Is Pebblebrook Hotel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pebblebrook Hotel. If investors know Pebblebrook will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pebblebrook Hotel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.973
Dividend Share
0.04
Earnings Share
(0.93)
Revenue Per Share
11.657
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.045
The market value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pebblebrook that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pebblebrook Hotel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pebblebrook Hotel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pebblebrook Hotel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pebblebrook Hotel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pebblebrook Hotel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pebblebrook Hotel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pebblebrook Hotel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.