Primo Water Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PRMW Stock | USD 18.61 0.18 0.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Primo Water Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.57. Primo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Primo Water stock prices and determine the direction of Primo Water Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Primo Water's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Primo Water's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Primo Water's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Primo Water fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Primo Water to cross-verify your projections. Primo |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Primo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Primo Water's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Primo Water's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Primo Water stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Primo Water's open interest, investors have to compare it to Primo Water's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Primo Water is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Primo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Primo Water cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Primo Water's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Primo Water's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Primo Water is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Primo Water Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Primo Water Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Primo Water Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Primo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Primo Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Primo Water Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Primo Water | Primo Water Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Primo Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Primo Water's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Primo Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.68 and 20.37, respectively. We have considered Primo Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Primo Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Primo Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9051 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1705 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0104 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.5738 |
Predictive Modules for Primo Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Primo Water Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Primo Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Primo Water
For every potential investor in Primo, whether a beginner or expert, Primo Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Primo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Primo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Primo Water's price trends.Primo Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Primo Water stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Primo Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Primo Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Primo Water Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Primo Water's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Primo Water's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Primo Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Primo Water stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Primo Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Primo Water stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Primo Water Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15988.6 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.75 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.55 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.18 |
Primo Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of Primo Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Primo Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting primo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7134 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.509 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Primo Water in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Primo Water's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Primo Water options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Primo Water Corp using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Primo Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Primo Stock analysis
When running Primo Water's price analysis, check to measure Primo Water's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Primo Water is operating at the current time. Most of Primo Water's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Primo Water's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Primo Water's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Primo Water to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities |
Is Primo Water's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Primo Water. If investors know Primo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Primo Water listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.145 | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 0.4 | Revenue Per Share 11.112 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
The market value of Primo Water Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Primo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Primo Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Primo Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Primo Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Primo Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Primo Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Primo Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Primo Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.