UGAR SUGAR Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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UGARSUGAR -- India Stock  

INR 14.00  0.30  2.10%

UGAR SUGAR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast UGAR SUGAR historical stock prices and determine the direction of UGAR SUGAR WORKS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of UGAR SUGAR historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of UGAR SUGAR to cross-verify your projections.

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A naive forecasting model for UGAR SUGAR is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of UGAR SUGAR WORKS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

UGAR SUGAR Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of July

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of UGAR SUGAR WORKS on the next trading day is expected to be  13.10  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.50 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.56 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  30.34 
 13.10 

UGAR SUGAR Stock Forecast Pattern

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UGAR SUGAR Forecasted Value

Market Value
14.00
8th of July 2020
13.10
Expected Value
18.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5269
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4974
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.038
SAESum of the absolute errors30.3441
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of UGAR SUGAR WORKS. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict UGAR SUGAR. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for UGAR SUGAR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UGAR SUGAR WORKS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.9414.0019.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6.2311.2916.35
Details

Other Forecasting Options for UGAR SUGAR

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UGAR SUGAR WORKS Technical and Predictive Analytics

Volatility Measures

UGAR SUGAR Risk Indicators

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Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of UGAR SUGAR to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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