Exela Technologies Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| XELA Stock | USD 1.96 0.01 0.51% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Exela Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.92. Exela Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Exela Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Exela Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Exela Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Exela Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Exela Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Exela Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exela Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Exela |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Exela Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Exela Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Exela Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Exela Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Exela Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Exela Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Exela Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Exela. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Exela Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Exela Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Exela Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Exela Technologies polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Exela Technologies as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Exela Technologies Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Exela Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exela Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exela Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exela Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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Exela Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exela Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exela Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.28, respectively. We have considered Exela Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exela Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exela Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8654 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1601 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0676 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9248 |
Predictive Modules for Exela Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exela Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exela Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Exela Technologies
For every potential investor in Exela, whether a beginner or expert, Exela Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exela Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exela. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exela Technologies' price trends.Exela Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exela Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exela Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exela Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exela Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Exela Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Exela Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exela Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exela Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exela Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exela Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exela Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Exela Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exela Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exela Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exela stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.52 | |||
| Variance | 42.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Exela Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Exela Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Exela Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Exela Technologies Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exela Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Exela Stock refer to our How to Trade Exela Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Exela Stock analysis
When running Exela Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Exela Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exela Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Exela Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exela Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exela Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exela Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Exela Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exela Technologies. If investors know Exela will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exela Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (22.37) | Revenue Per Share 177.843 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0021 |
The market value of Exela Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exela that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exela Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exela Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exela Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exela Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exela Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exela Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exela Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.