Zealand Pharma Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ZEAL Stock | DKK 611.00 29.50 5.07% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zealand Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 610.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 929.93. Zealand Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zealand Pharma stock prices and determine the direction of Zealand Pharma AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Zealand Pharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zealand Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Zealand |
Most investors in Zealand Pharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Zealand Pharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Zealand Pharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Zealand Pharma simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Zealand Pharma AS are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Zealand Pharma AS prices get older. Zealand Pharma Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zealand Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 610.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.50, mean absolute percentage error of 777.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 929.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zealand Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zealand Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Zealand Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
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Zealand Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Zealand Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zealand Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 605.11 and 615.76, respectively. We have considered Zealand Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zealand Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zealand Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9282 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.7681 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.4988 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0253 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 929.9308 |
Predictive Modules for Zealand Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zealand Pharma AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Zealand Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Zealand Pharma
For every potential investor in Zealand, whether a beginner or expert, Zealand Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zealand Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zealand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zealand Pharma's price trends.Zealand Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zealand Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zealand Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zealand Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Zealand Pharma AS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Zealand Pharma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Zealand Pharma's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Zealand Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zealand Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zealand Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zealand Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zealand Pharma AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Zealand Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Zealand Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zealand Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zealand stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.18 | |||
| Variance | 26.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Zealand Pharma in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Zealand Pharma's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Zealand Pharma options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zealand Pharma to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Zealand Stock analysis
When running Zealand Pharma's price analysis, check to measure Zealand Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Zealand Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of Zealand Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Zealand Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Zealand Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Zealand Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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