Alcoa Corp Stock Price Prediction

AA Stock  USD 31.03  0.59  1.94%   
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Alcoa Corp's share price is approaching 48. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alcoa Corp's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

48

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Alcoa Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alcoa Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alcoa Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Alcoa Corp's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.81
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.14)
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.34
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.24
Wall Street Target Price
29.02
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alcoa Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alcoa stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Alcoa Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corp from the perspective of Alcoa Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alcoa Corp using Alcoa Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alcoa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alcoa Corp's stock price.

Alcoa Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Alcoa Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alcoa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alcoa Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Alcoa Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alcoa Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alcoa Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
29.6821
Short Percent
0.0758
Short Ratio
2.07
Shares Short Prior Month
11.7 M
50 Day MA
28.684

Alcoa Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Alcoa Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alcoa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alcoa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alcoa Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alcoa Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility

    
  68.85  
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alcoa Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alcoa Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alcoa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alcoa Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 31.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alcoa contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alcoa Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.3% per day over the life of the 2024-03-22 option contract. With Alcoa Corp trading at USD 31.03, that is roughly USD 1.34 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alcoa Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alcoa Corp options at the current volatility level of 68.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.1430.4533.76
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
32.1035.2739.15
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.92-0.4-0.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alcoa Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alcoa Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alcoa Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alcoa Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alcoa Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alcoa Corp's historical news coverage. Alcoa Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.73 and 34.35, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
31.03
31.04
After-hype Price
34.35
Upside
Alcoa Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alcoa Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alcoa Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
3.29
  0.07 
  0.01 
7 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
31.03
31.04
0.03 
361.54  
Notes

Alcoa Corp Hype Timeline

As of March 19, 2024 Alcoa Corp is listed for 31.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Alcoa is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 31.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.03% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa Corp is about 2924.44% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 31.02. The company generated the yearly revenue of 10.55 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (773 M) with gross profit of 2.31 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.

Alcoa Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alcoa Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alcoa Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Alcoa Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alcoa Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CECOCECO Environmental Corp(5.29)7 per month 3.62  0.01  4.03 (2.96) 25.67 
MYRGMYR Group 3.76 10 per month 2.33  0.02  3.04 (3.33) 8.98 
TRMDTorm PLC Class(0.02)4 per month 1.34  0.13  3.55 (2.84) 8.20 
FSTRLB Foster 1.05 8 per month 2.31  0.07  3.91 (3.61) 13.49 
NXSTNexstar Broadcasting Group(0.74)9 per month 2.20  0.02  3.84 (2.92) 15.37 
TFIITFI International 1.76 10 per month 0.85  0.18  3.36 (2.07) 11.31 
SHIMShimmick Common(0.11)3 per month 2.88 (0.03) 5.30 (3.55) 17.66 
GFFGriffon(1.31)12 per month 1.34  0.14  2.62 (2.40) 15.36 

Alcoa Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alcoa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alcoa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alcoa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Alcoa Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alcoa Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp based on analysis of Alcoa Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alcoa Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alcoa Corp's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0016780.0087480.01190.0125
Price To Sales Ratio0.910.640.570.43

Story Coverage note for Alcoa Corp

The number of cover stories for Alcoa Corp depends on current market conditions and Alcoa Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alcoa Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alcoa Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alcoa Corp Short Properties

Alcoa Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alcoa Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alcoa Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding178.3 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB
When determining whether Alcoa Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alcoa Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alcoa Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alcoa Corp Stock:
Check out Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.
Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.81
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
(3.65)
Revenue Per Share
59.275
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.