Alcoa Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 43.71  1.85  4.06%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Alcoa headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corporation brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alcoa hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corporation from the prospective of Alcoa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa over a specific investment horizon. Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Alcoa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

June 25, 2018
43.71
Current Value
45.46
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
51.64
Upside
Alcoa is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa is based on 1 month time horizon.

Alcoa Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.33% 2.18% 0.20%  0.07% 6 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
43.7145.460.22%
363.33% 

Alcoa Hype Timeline

As of June 25, 2018 Alcoa Corporation is listed for 43.71. This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.2 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Alcoa Corporation is suggested to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 45.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 363.33%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.22% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa is about 1013.95% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 43.64. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.57. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alcoa Corporation has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.9. This company last dividend was issued on August 3, 2016. The firm had 2:1 split on 2016-11-01. Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the next suggested press release will be in about 6 days.
Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Alcoa Corporation(0.60) 6 per month 0.00 (0.11)  2.62 (2.86)  8.11 
Reliance Steel Aluminum Co(0.92) 4 per month 0.00  0.0249  1.53 (2.18)  4.63 
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated(0.33) 3 per month 0.00 (0.0455)  2.64 (2.81)  7.85 
Carpenter Technology Corporation(0.45) 3 per month 0.00 (0.12)  2.40 (2.43)  6.17 
Southern Copper Corporation 0.46 4 per month 0.00 (0.20)  2.57 (3.38)  6.69 
Arconic(0.02) 6 per month 0.00 (0.29)  1.19 (2.61)  3.84 
Constellium N V 0.15 5 per month 0.00 (0.09)  2.48 (2.81)  9.62 
International Business Machines Corporation 0.49 6 per month 0.00 (0.08)  0.77 (0.97)  1.96 
Chevron Corporation(0.87) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0402)  2.90 (2.15)  5.26 
Intel Corporation(0.06) 5 per month 0.00 (0.11)  1.26 (2.41)  6.84 

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Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.