Alcoa Price Prediction

Alcoa Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 41.43  0.78  1.85%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Alcoa headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corporation brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alcoa hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corporation from the prospective of Alcoa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa over a specific investment horizon. Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
November 21, 2017
41.43
Current Value
Downside upside
42.16
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
48.34
Upside
Upside upside
Alcoa is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa is based on 1 month time horizon.

Alcoa Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.56% 2.01% 0.04%  0.14% 1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
41.4342.160.12%
2,512% 

Alcoa Hype Timeline

As of November 21, 2017 Alcoa Corporation is going for 41.43 . This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Alcoa Corporation is suggested to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 42.16. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 2512.5%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.12% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.56%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa is about 783.12% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 41.57. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.31. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alcoa Corporation last dividend was issued on August 3, 2016. This company had 2:1 split on 2016-11-01. Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the next suggested press release will be very soon.
Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Alcoa Corporation(0.08) 1 per month 0.00 (0.3)  0.00  2.6 (2.92)  10.06 
Reliance Steel Aluminum Co 1.44 1 per month 0.00 (0.1)  0.00  1.65 (1.81)  4.95 
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated(0.03) 1 per month 0.00 (0.19)  0.00  2.82 (6.56)  11.17 
Carpenter Technology Corporation 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.25)  0.00  2.1 (2.53)  5.14 
Southern Copper Corporation 0.13 1 per month 1.22 (0.0232) (0.94)  2.19 (1.71)  6.01 
Arconic Inc 0.08 1 per month 0.00 (0.24)  0.00  1.58 (2.48)  10.38