Apple Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AAPL -- USA Stock  

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We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Apple which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Apple hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Apple from the prospective of Apple response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Apple over a specific investment horizon. Check also Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Apple After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Apple Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

October 20, 2019
235.28
Current Value
231.81
Downside
236.94
After-hype Price
242.07
Upside
Apple is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apple is based on 3 months time horizon.

Apple Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.22  1.71% 0.53   0.01  8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
235.28236.940.22 
71.55

Apple Hype Timeline

Apple is presently traded for235.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.53 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Apple is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 236.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 71.55%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.22% where as daily expected return is presently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Apple is about 3290.36% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 235.27. The company reported previous year revenue of 259.03 B. Net Income was 55.69 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 101.84 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check also Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Apple Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding C(0.59) 8 per month 3.65  0.06  4.30 (4.53)  17.46 
KYOCERA CORP(0.1) 9 per month 0.00  0.0126  2.25 (2.56)  5.83 
IRobot Corporation 1.29 8 per month 0.00 (0.22)  2.86 (3.31)  19.01 
GoPro(0.20) 11 per month 0.00 (0.09)  5.83 (6.80)  26.39 
LG Display Co Ltd AMERICAN DEP(0.06) 2 per month 0.00 (0.08)  4.57 (5.59)  12.31 
Mohawk Group Holdings 0.40 3 per month 4.10  0.06  9.65 (8.31)  29.00 
Eastman Kodak Company 0.02 8 per month 2.83  0.0341  5.20 (5.21)  12.64 
Guitammer CO 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.0238  8.11 (7.50)  83.33 
Fabrinet(1.29) 10 per month 3.81  0.0275  4.51 (3.32)  23.62 
Emerson Radio Corporation 0.0103 6 per month 0.00 (0.0239)  5.94 (6.11)  32.96 
Check also Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
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