Arch Capital Group Stock Price Prediction
| ACGL Stock | USD 90.63 0.23 0.25% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
Arch Capital Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Arch Capital shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Arch Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arch Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arch Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arch Capital Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Arch Capital's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.708 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.96 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.08 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.65 | Wall Street Target Price 105.29 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Arch Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Arch stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Arch Capital over a specific investment horizon. Using Arch Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arch Capital Group from the perspective of Arch Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arch Capital using Arch Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arch using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arch Capital's stock price.
Arch Capital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Arch Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Arch. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Arch Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Arch Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arch Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arch Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 81.9283 | Short Percent 0.011 | Short Ratio 1.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.9 M | 50 Day MA 88.8344 |
Arch Capital Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arch Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arch. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arch can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arch Capital Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arch Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arch Capital.
Arch Capital Implied Volatility | 48.85 |
Arch Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arch Capital Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arch Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arch Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arch Capital's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Arch Capital. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arch Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arch because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arch Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 90.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arch contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arch Capital Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.05% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Arch Capital trading at USD 90.63, that is roughly USD 2.77 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arch Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arch Capital Group options at the current volatility level of 48.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Arch |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arch Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arch Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arch Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arch Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arch Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arch Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arch Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arch Capital's historical news coverage. Arch Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 89.18 and 91.66, respectively. We have considered Arch Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arch Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arch Capital Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arch Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arch Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arch Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arch Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.24 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
90.63 | 90.42 | 0.23 |
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Arch Capital Hype Timeline
Arch Capital Group is presently traded for 90.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Arch is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 90.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 112.73%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Arch Capital is about 8266.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 90.63. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arch Capital Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.24. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.62. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Arch Capital had 3:1 split on the 21st of June 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Arch Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arch Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arch Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arch Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Arch Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arch Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HIG | Hartford Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.15 | 1.44 | (0.96) | 7.53 | |
| GSHD | Goosehead Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.58 | (4.68) | 24.83 | |
| IGIC | International General Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.58 | 0.04 | 3.42 | (2.52) | 10.56 | |
| ESGR | Enstar Group Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | (0.01) | 2.97 | (2.55) | 7.64 | |
| AIG | American International Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 1.52 | (1.67) | 6.20 | |
| EQH | Axa Equitable Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.97 | 0.07 | 2.12 | (1.66) | 5.81 | |
| SLF | Sun Life Financial | (0.15) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.49 | (1.37) | 4.34 | |
| ARZGF | Assicurazioni Generali SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.42 | |
| AGESY | ageas SANV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.06 | 2.17 | (1.55) | 5.15 | |
| AXAHF | AXA SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.20 | 0.06 | 2.34 | (1.82) | 6.80 |
Arch Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arch Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arch Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arch Capital Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arch Capital based on analysis of Arch Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arch Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arch Capital's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.002773 | 0.00176 | 0.001461 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.95 | 2.41 | 2.05 |
Story Coverage note for Arch Capital
The number of cover stories for Arch Capital depends on current market conditions and Arch Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arch Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arch Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arch Capital Short Properties
Arch Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arch Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arch Capital Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arch Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arch Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 378.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8 B |
Check out Arch Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Arch Capital Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arch Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Arch Stock analysis
When running Arch Capital's price analysis, check to measure Arch Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arch Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.708 | Earnings Share 11.62 | Revenue Per Share 36.979 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.294 | Return On Assets 0.0419 |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.