American Financial Group Stock Price Prediction
| AFG Stock | USD 126.16 1.15 0.90% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
American Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Financial's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.93 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.09 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.95 | Wall Street Target Price 139.17 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using American Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Financial Group from the perspective of American Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Financial using American Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Financial's stock price.
American Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 118.1861 | Short Percent 0.0108 | Short Ratio 2.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 868.3 K | 50 Day MA 128.035 |
American Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Financial.
American Financial Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
American Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 127.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With American Financial trading at USD 126.16, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
American |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Financial's historical news coverage. American Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.88 and 129.06, respectively. We have considered American Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.10 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
126.16 | 127.97 | 0.18 |
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American Financial Hype Timeline
On the 16th of April 2024 American Financial is traded for 126.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.47. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 127.97 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 85.27%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on American Financial is about 39.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 125.69. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.73 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 852 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.46 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out American Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how American Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | 0.43 | 5 per month | 1.68 | (0.02) | 3.15 | (2.91) | 7.98 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 0.87 | 11 per month | 1.87 | (0.02) | 2.41 | (1.81) | 8.89 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.95 | 0.06 | 3.42 | (3.33) | 12.39 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | (0.93) | 8 per month | 1.76 | (0.01) | 2.86 | (2.45) | 10.85 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | 2.07 | 11 per month | 1.14 | (0.04) | 1.94 | (1.45) | 6.42 | |
| CB | Chubb | (1.52) | 10 per month | 0.52 | 0.08 | 1.18 | (1.00) | 5.20 | |
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 0.76 | 9 per month | 0.48 | 0.22 | 1.52 | (1.05) | 7.37 | |
| WTM | White Mountains Insurance | (26.82) | 8 per month | 1.21 | 0.08 | 2.39 | (2.07) | 5.64 | |
| WRB-PE | W R Berkley | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.72 | (1.35) | 3.38 |
American Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Financial based on analysis of American Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Financial's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0679 | 0.0713 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.78 | 1.66 | 1.3 | 0.67 |
Story Coverage note for American Financial
The number of cover stories for American Financial depends on current market conditions and American Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Financial Short Properties
American Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Check out American Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Financial's price analysis, check to measure American Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Financial is operating at the current time. Most of American Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Financial. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 2.68 | Earnings Share 10.04 | Revenue Per Share 87.981 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.087 |
The market value of American Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.