Aflac Incorporated Stock Price Prediction
| AFL Stock | USD 84.30 0.55 0.66% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Aflac Incorporated stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Aflac Incorporated shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Aflac Incorporated's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aflac Incorporated and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aflac Incorporated's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aflac Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Aflac Incorporated's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.435 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.59 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.42 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.89 | Wall Street Target Price 85.33 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aflac Incorporated based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Aflac stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Aflac Incorporated over a specific investment horizon. Using Aflac Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aflac Incorporated from the perspective of Aflac Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aflac Incorporated using Aflac Incorporated's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aflac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aflac Incorporated's stock price.
Aflac Incorporated Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Aflac Incorporated's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Aflac. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Aflac Incorporated stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Aflac Incorporated may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aflac Incorporated and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aflac Incorporated with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 79.3471 | Short Percent 0.0222 | Short Ratio 5.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.8 M | 50 Day MA 82.1428 |
Aflac Incorporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aflac Incorporated's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aflac. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aflac can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aflac Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aflac Incorporated's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aflac Incorporated.
Aflac Incorporated Implied Volatility | 28.23 |
Aflac Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aflac Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aflac Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aflac Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aflac Incorporated's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Aflac Incorporated. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aflac Incorporated to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aflac because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Aflac Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 83.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aflac contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aflac Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.76% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Aflac Incorporated trading at USD 84.3, that is roughly USD 1.49 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aflac Incorporated's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aflac Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 28.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Aflac |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aflac Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aflac Incorporated After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aflac Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aflac Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aflac Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aflac Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aflac Incorporated's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aflac Incorporated's historical news coverage. Aflac Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.15 and 85.35, respectively. We have considered Aflac Incorporated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aflac Incorporated is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aflac Incorporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aflac Incorporated Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aflac Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aflac Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aflac Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
84.30 | 83.75 | 0.00 |
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Aflac Incorporated Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Aflac Incorporated is traded for 84.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aflac is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 168.42%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aflac Incorporated is about 548.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 84.30. About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Aflac Incorporated was presently reported as 38.01. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.93. Aflac Incorporated recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.78. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of March 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Aflac Incorporated Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Aflac Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aflac Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aflac Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how Aflac Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aflac Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRU | Prudential Financial | (1.04) | 12 per month | 1.03 | 0.04 | 1.72 | (1.59) | 8.35 | |
| LNC | Lincoln National | (0.45) | 9 per month | 2.15 | 0.01 | 3.16 | (2.92) | 13.10 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (1.63) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.80 | (2.57) | 15.99 | |
| UNM | Unum Group | (0.30) | 10 per month | 0.96 | 0.1 | 1.56 | (1.66) | 5.00 | |
| MET | MetLife | (0.27) | 11 per month | 1.34 | (0) | 1.56 | (1.29) | 6.74 | |
| MFC | Manulife Financial Corp | 0.16 | 12 per month | 0.88 | 0.05 | 1.83 | (1.62) | 11.82 | |
| PRI | Primerica | 0.69 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.20 | (2.00) | 10.92 | |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group | (0.21) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.95 | (2.31) | 6.70 | |
| PUK | Prudential Public Limited | (0.16) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.40 | (2.78) | 8.27 | |
| FG | FG Annuities Life | 0.27 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.81 | (4.40) | 15.55 | |
| JXN | Jackson Financial | (0.27) | 11 per month | 1.06 | 0.24 | 3.70 | (2.65) | 8.65 |
Aflac Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aflac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aflac using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aflac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Aflac Incorporated Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Aflac Incorporated stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aflac Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aflac Incorporated based on analysis of Aflac Incorporated hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aflac Incorporated's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aflac Incorporated's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0217 | 0.0214 | 0.0126 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.78 | 2.39 | 2.76 |
Story Coverage note for Aflac Incorporated
The number of cover stories for Aflac Incorporated depends on current market conditions and Aflac Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aflac Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aflac Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aflac Incorporated Short Properties
Aflac Incorporated's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aflac Incorporated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aflac Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aflac Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aflac Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 598.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77.6 B |
Check out Aflac Incorporated Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Aflac Stock please use our How to buy in Aflac Stock guide.Note that the Aflac Incorporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aflac Incorporated's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for Aflac Stock analysis
When running Aflac Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure Aflac Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aflac Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of Aflac Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aflac Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aflac Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aflac Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aflac Incorporated's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aflac Incorporated. If investors know Aflac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aflac Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.435 | Dividend Share 1.68 | Earnings Share 7.78 | Revenue Per Share 31.368 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Aflac Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aflac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aflac Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aflac Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aflac Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aflac Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aflac Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aflac Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aflac Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.