First Majestic Silver Stock Price Prediction
| AG Stock | USD 6.84 0.65 8.68% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
82
Oversold | Overbought |
First Majestic Silver stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of First Majestic shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of First Majestic's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of First Majestic and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from First Majestic's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Majestic Silver, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting First Majestic's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.359 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.27 | Wall Street Target Price 6.06 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.04) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of First Majestic based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The First stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on First Majestic over a specific investment horizon. Using First Majestic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Majestic Silver from the perspective of First Majestic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Majestic using First Majestic's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Majestic's stock price.
First Majestic Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in First Majestic's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards First. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of First Majestic stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long First Majestic may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about First Majestic and may potentially protect profits, hedge First Majestic with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.6101 | Short Percent 0.0688 | Short Ratio 2.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.4 M | 50 Day MA 5.5542 |
First Majestic Silver Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Majestic's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Majestic Silver. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of First Majestic's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about First Majestic.
First Majestic Implied Volatility | 100.96 |
First Majestic's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Majestic Silver stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Majestic's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Majestic stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Majestic's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in First Majestic. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Majestic to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Majestic after-hype prediction price | USD 6.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Majestic Silver will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.31% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With First Majestic trading at USD 6.84, that is roughly USD 0.43 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Majestic's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Majestic Silver options at the current volatility level of 100.96%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Majestic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Majestic After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Majestic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Majestic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Majestic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Majestic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Majestic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Majestic's historical news coverage. First Majestic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.86 and 10.82, respectively. We have considered First Majestic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Majestic is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Majestic Silver is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Majestic Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Majestic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Majestic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Majestic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 3.98 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.84 | 6.84 | 0.00 |
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First Majestic Hype Timeline
As of April 18, 2024 First Majestic Silver is listed for 6.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.68%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Majestic is about 6218.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.88. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.59. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Majestic Silver recorded a loss per share of 0.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the February 1, 1996. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out First Majestic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Majestic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Majestic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Majestic's future price movements. Getting to know how First Majestic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Majestic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EXK | Endeavour Silver Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 2.91 | 0.14 | 8.72 | (4.64) | 20.20 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | (0.02) | 8 per month | 2.86 | 0.08 | 5.88 | (3.51) | 17.04 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | 0.81 | 11 per month | 2.35 | 0.10 | 4.74 | (3.91) | 10.85 | |
| AG | First Majestic Silver | (0.28) | 10 per month | 3.59 | 0.1 | 6.08 | (6.55) | 22.14 | |
| HL | Hecla Mining | (0.20) | 9 per month | 2.85 | 0.08 | 6.15 | (4.48) | 12.59 |
First Majestic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First Majestic Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Majestic stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Majestic Silver, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Majestic based on analysis of First Majestic hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Majestic's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Majestic's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001445 | 0.003129 | 0.003442 | 0.004501 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.63 | 3.5 | 2.97 | 2.82 |
Story Coverage note for First Majestic
The number of cover stories for First Majestic depends on current market conditions and First Majestic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Majestic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Majestic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Majestic Short Properties
First Majestic's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Majestic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Majestic Silver often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Majestic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Majestic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 282.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 187 M |
Check out First Majestic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the First Majestic Silver information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Majestic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Majestic's price analysis, check to measure First Majestic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Majestic is operating at the current time. Most of First Majestic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Majestic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Majestic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Majestic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is First Majestic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Majestic. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Majestic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.359 | Dividend Share 0.02 | Earnings Share (0.48) | Revenue Per Share 2.032 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
The market value of First Majestic Silver is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Majestic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Majestic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Majestic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Majestic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Majestic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Majestic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Majestic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.