Allegiant Travel Stock Price Prediction
| ALGT Stock | USD 60.75 0.50 0.82% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Allegiant Travel stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Allegiant Travel shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Allegiant Travel's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Allegiant Travel and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Allegiant Travel's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Allegiant Travel, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Allegiant Travel's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.984 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.03 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.58 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.35 | Wall Street Target Price 77.89 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Allegiant Travel based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Allegiant stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Allegiant Travel over a specific investment horizon. Using Allegiant Travel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegiant Travel from the perspective of Allegiant Travel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegiant Travel using Allegiant Travel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegiant using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegiant Travel's stock price.
Allegiant Travel Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Allegiant Travel's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Allegiant. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Allegiant Travel stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Allegiant Travel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allegiant Travel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allegiant Travel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 83.0709 | Short Percent 0.0601 | Short Ratio 3.03 | Shares Short Prior Month 765.5 K | 50 Day MA 72.4376 |
Allegiant Travel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allegiant Travel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegiant. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegiant can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegiant Travel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegiant Travel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegiant Travel.
Allegiant Travel Implied Volatility | 131.26 |
Allegiant Travel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegiant Travel stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegiant Travel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegiant Travel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegiant Travel's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Allegiant Travel. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Allegiant Travel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Allegiant because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Allegiant Travel after-hype prediction price | USD 60.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allegiant contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allegiant Travel will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 8.2% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Allegiant Travel trading at USD 60.75, that is roughly USD 4.98 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allegiant Travel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allegiant Travel options at the current volatility level of 131.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Allegiant |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegiant Travel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allegiant Travel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allegiant Travel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allegiant Travel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allegiant Travel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allegiant Travel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allegiant Travel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allegiant Travel's historical news coverage. Allegiant Travel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.01 and 63.41, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allegiant Travel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allegiant Travel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allegiant Travel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allegiant Travel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allegiant Travel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allegiant Travel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.70 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
60.75 | 60.71 | 0.07 |
|
Allegiant Travel Hype Timeline
Allegiant Travel is presently traded for 60.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Allegiant is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 60.71. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Allegiant Travel is about 2207.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.78. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Allegiant Travel recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.29. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Allegiant Travel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Allegiant Travel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allegiant Travel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allegiant Travel's future price movements. Getting to know how Allegiant Travel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allegiant Travel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AZUL | Azul SA | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.62 | (8.62) | 17.14 | |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.74 | 0.05 | 3.73 | (2.44) | 8.58 | |
| BABWF | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.45 | (0.02) | 6.71 | (6.25) | 15.55 | |
| GOL | Gol Linhas Aereas | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.41 | (10.84) | 53.65 | |
| SNCY | Sun Country Airlines | 0.01 | 9 per month | 2.58 | (0.01) | 4.80 | (4.24) | 13.21 | |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings | 0.20 | 11 per month | 4.53 | 0.09 | 10.77 | (8.38) | 32.12 | |
| MESA | Mesa Air Group | (0.01) | 8 per month | 4.69 | 0.02 | 6.17 | (7.48) | 57.95 | |
| HA | Hawaiian Holdings | 0.05 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.00 | (1.86) | 5.47 | |
| SKYW | SkyWest | 0.39 | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.22 | 2.86 | (1.87) | 10.79 | |
| ATSG | Air Transport Services | 0.72 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.13 | (4.11) | 9.10 | |
| VLRS | Volaris | (0.09) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.84 | (4.18) | 12.69 | |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | 0.23 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 8.54 | (12.73) | 47.05 | |
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | 0.19 | 9 per month | 2.89 | 0.11 | 6.86 | (4.73) | 26.03 |
Allegiant Travel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allegiant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegiant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegiant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Allegiant Travel Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Allegiant Travel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Allegiant Travel, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Allegiant Travel based on analysis of Allegiant Travel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Allegiant Travel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Allegiant Travel's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0149 | 0.0134 | 0.0132 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.89 | 0.59 | 0.56 |
Story Coverage note for Allegiant Travel
The number of cover stories for Allegiant Travel depends on current market conditions and Allegiant Travel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allegiant Travel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allegiant Travel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Allegiant Travel Short Properties
Allegiant Travel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Allegiant Travel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allegiant Travel often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allegiant Travel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allegiant Travel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 831 M |
Check out Allegiant Travel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Allegiant Stock please use our How to Invest in Allegiant Travel guide.Note that the Allegiant Travel information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Allegiant Travel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Allegiant Stock analysis
When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences |
Is Allegiant Travel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegiant Travel. If investors know Allegiant will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegiant Travel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.984 | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 6.29 | Revenue Per Share 139.864 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Allegiant Travel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegiant that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegiant Travel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegiant Travel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegiant Travel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegiant Travel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegiant Travel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegiant Travel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegiant Travel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.