Ambac Financial Group Stock Price Prediction
| AMBC Stock | USD 14.54 0.10 0.68% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
41
Oversold | Overbought |
Ambac Financial Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ambac Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ambac Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ambac Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ambac Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ambac Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ambac Financial's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.35 | Wall Street Target Price 17 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ambac Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ambac stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ambac Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using Ambac Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ambac Financial Group from the perspective of Ambac Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ambac Financial using Ambac Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ambac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ambac Financial's stock price.
Ambac Financial Implied Volatility | 52.55 |
Ambac Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ambac Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ambac Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ambac Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ambac Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ambac Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ambac Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ambac because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ambac Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 14.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ambac contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ambac Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.28% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Ambac Financial trading at USD 14.54, that is roughly USD 0.48 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ambac Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ambac Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 52.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ambac |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ambac Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ambac Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ambac Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ambac Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ambac Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ambac Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ambac Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ambac Financial's historical news coverage. Ambac Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.52 and 16.62, respectively. We have considered Ambac Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ambac Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ambac Financial Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ambac Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ambac Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ambac Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ambac Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.54 | 14.57 | 0.21 |
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Ambac Financial Hype Timeline
Ambac Financial Group is presently traded for 14.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Ambac is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.57 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Ambac Financial is about 1757.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.56. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 268 M. Net Income was 8 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 674 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ambac Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ambac Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ambac Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ambac Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Ambac Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ambac Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EIG | Employers Holdings | 0.02 | 12 per month | 0.69 | 0.04 | 2.65 | (1.55) | 5.48 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | 0.29 | 5 per month | 4.08 | 0.03 | 5.62 | (3.85) | 24.31 | |
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 1.56 | 12 per month | 1.31 | (0.05) | 1.71 | (2.09) | 14.51 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | 0.00 | 9 per month | 1.07 | (0.01) | 3.16 | (2.90) | 9.23 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.30) | 9 per month | 1.64 | 0.01 | 2.47 | (2.56) | 11.46 | |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | (0.29) | 10 per month | 1.52 | (0.02) | 1.79 | (2.22) | 10.93 | |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | (0.08) | 4 per month | 0.93 | 0.01 | 2.32 | (1.51) | 5.30 | |
| ESNT | Essent Group | 1.32 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.52 | (2.18) | 7.67 | |
| ITIC | Investors Title | (1.47) | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0 | 3.43 | (2.56) | 15.97 |
Ambac Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ambac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ambac using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ambac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ambac Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ambac Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ambac Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ambac Financial based on analysis of Ambac Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ambac Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ambac Financial's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0145 | 0.0115 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.81 | 5.18 |
Story Coverage note for Ambac Financial
The number of cover stories for Ambac Financial depends on current market conditions and Ambac Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ambac Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ambac Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ambac Financial Short Properties
Ambac Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ambac Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ambac Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ambac Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambac Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Check out Ambac Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ambac Financial Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ambac Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Ambac Stock analysis
When running Ambac Financial's price analysis, check to measure Ambac Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ambac Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ambac Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ambac Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ambac Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ambac Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ambac Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambac Financial. If investors know Ambac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambac Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share 0.18 | Revenue Per Share 5.894 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.42) | Return On Assets 0.0058 |
The market value of Ambac Financial Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambac Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambac Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambac Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambac Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambac Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambac Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambac Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.