American Woodmark Stock Price Prediction
| AMWD Stock | USD 90.20 0.10 0.11% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
American Woodmark stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Woodmark shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Woodmark's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Woodmark and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Woodmark's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Woodmark, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Woodmark's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.5 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.6 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.1 | Wall Street Target Price 104.2 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.28 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Woodmark based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Woodmark over a specific investment horizon. Using American Woodmark hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Woodmark from the perspective of American Woodmark response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Woodmark using American Woodmark's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Woodmark's stock price.
American Woodmark Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Woodmark's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Woodmark stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American Woodmark may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Woodmark and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Woodmark with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 83.3755 | Short Percent 0.0278 | Short Ratio 2.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 474.1 K | 50 Day MA 96.5226 |
American Woodmark Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Woodmark's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Woodmark. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Woodmark's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Woodmark.
American Woodmark Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
American Woodmark's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Woodmark stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Woodmark's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Woodmark stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Woodmark's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Woodmark. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Woodmark to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Woodmark after-hype prediction price | USD 90.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Woodmark will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With American Woodmark trading at USD 90.2, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Woodmark's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Woodmark options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
American |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Woodmark's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Woodmark After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Woodmark at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Woodmark or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Woodmark, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Woodmark Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Woodmark's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Woodmark's historical news coverage. American Woodmark's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 87.83 and 92.31, respectively. We have considered American Woodmark's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Woodmark is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Woodmark is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Woodmark Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Woodmark is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Woodmark backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Woodmark, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.24 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
90.20 | 90.07 | 0.03 |
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American Woodmark Hype Timeline
American Woodmark is presently traded for 90.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. American is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 90.07. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on American Woodmark is about 415.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 90.23. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Woodmark has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.26. The firm last dividend was issued on the 9th of June 2011. American Woodmark had 2:1 split on the 27th of September 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out American Woodmark Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Woodmark Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Woodmark's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Woodmark's future price movements. Getting to know how American Woodmark's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Woodmark may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LZB | La Z Boy Incorporated | (0.33) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.39 | (2.96) | 8.04 | |
| NTZ | Natuzzi SpA | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.37 | (2.62) | 8.46 | |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries | 2.08 | 9 per month | 1.88 | 0.02 | 2.45 | (3.41) | 10.95 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | (0.13) | 7 per month | 1.71 | 0.09 | 3.57 | (2.98) | 11.30 | |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.04 | (2.77) | 10.63 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | 2.62 | 8 per month | 2.09 | 0.21 | 5.59 | (3.89) | 20.17 | |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands | 0.55 | 7 per month | 3.18 | 0.07 | 6.51 | (6.10) | 20.75 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | (0.57) | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.05 | 2.75 | (2.70) | 8.02 |
American Woodmark Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Woodmark Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Woodmark stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Woodmark, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Woodmark based on analysis of American Woodmark hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Woodmark's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Woodmark's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001389 | 0.00132 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.47 | 0.45 |
Story Coverage note for American Woodmark
The number of cover stories for American Woodmark depends on current market conditions and American Woodmark's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Woodmark is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Woodmark's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Woodmark Short Properties
American Woodmark's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Woodmark's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Woodmark often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Woodmark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Woodmark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.7 M |
Check out American Woodmark Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
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When running American Woodmark's price analysis, check to measure American Woodmark's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Woodmark is operating at the current time. Most of American Woodmark's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Woodmark's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Woodmark's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Woodmark to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Woodmark's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Woodmark. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Woodmark listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.5 | Earnings Share 7.26 | Revenue Per Share 114.628 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) | Return On Assets 0.0649 |
The market value of American Woodmark is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Woodmark's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Woodmark's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Woodmark's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Woodmark's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Woodmark's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Woodmark is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Woodmark's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.