Alibaba Group Holding Stock Price Prediction
| BABA Stock | USD 70.68 1.61 2.33% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Alibaba Group Holding stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alibaba Group shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alibaba Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alibaba Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alibaba Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alibaba Group Holding, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Alibaba Group's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.73 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.64 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.49 | Wall Street Target Price 106.42 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alibaba Group based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alibaba stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alibaba Group over a specific investment horizon. Using Alibaba Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alibaba Group Holding from the perspective of Alibaba Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alibaba Group using Alibaba Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alibaba using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alibaba Group's stock price.
Alibaba Group Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alibaba Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alibaba. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alibaba Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Alibaba Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alibaba Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alibaba Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 80.808 | Short Percent 0.0367 | Short Ratio 3.05 | Shares Short Prior Month 47.5 M | 50 Day MA 73.0718 |
Alibaba Group Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alibaba Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alibaba. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alibaba can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alibaba Group Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alibaba Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alibaba Group.
Alibaba Group Implied Volatility | 35.76 |
Alibaba Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alibaba Group Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alibaba Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alibaba Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alibaba Group's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alibaba Group. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alibaba Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alibaba because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alibaba Group after-hype prediction price | USD 70.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alibaba contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alibaba Group Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.23% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Alibaba Group trading at USD 70.68, that is roughly USD 1.58 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alibaba Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alibaba Group Holding options at the current volatility level of 35.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Alibaba |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alibaba Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alibaba Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alibaba Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alibaba Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alibaba Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alibaba Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alibaba Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alibaba Group's historical news coverage. Alibaba Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.69 and 72.59, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alibaba Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alibaba Group Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alibaba Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alibaba Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alibaba Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alibaba Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.98 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
70.68 | 70.64 | 0.06 |
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Alibaba Group Hype Timeline
Alibaba Group Holding is currently traded for 70.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.29. Alibaba is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 70.64. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Alibaba Group is about 54.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.97. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.24. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alibaba Group Holding has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.35. The firm last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alibaba Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alibaba Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alibaba Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Alibaba Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alibaba Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APPN | Appian Corp | 0.70 | 7 per month | 3.13 | 0.02 | 4.87 | (5.33) | 22.44 | |
| OKTA | Okta Inc | (0.19) | 9 per month | 1.82 | 0.04 | 3.74 | (2.96) | 27.01 | |
| MDB | MongoDB | 17.82 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.43 | (4.29) | 14.33 | |
| TWLO | Twilio Inc | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.45 | (3.89) | 19.67 | |
| TTD | Trade Desk | (0.21) | 8 per month | 2.21 | 0.07 | 4.15 | (3.57) | 24.62 |
Alibaba Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alibaba price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alibaba using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alibaba charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alibaba Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alibaba Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alibaba Group Holding, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group based on analysis of Alibaba Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alibaba Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alibaba Group's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0124 | 2.75E-4 | 2.61E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.19 | 563.04 | 349.7 |
Story Coverage note for Alibaba Group
The number of cover stories for Alibaba Group depends on current market conditions and Alibaba Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alibaba Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alibaba Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alibaba Group Short Properties
Alibaba Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alibaba Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alibaba Group Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alibaba Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alibaba Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 524.5 B |
Check out Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alibaba Group Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alibaba Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for Alibaba Stock analysis
When running Alibaba Group's price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alibaba Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Dividend Share 6.869 | Earnings Share 5.35 | Revenue Per Share 363.638 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 |
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alibaba Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.