Booz Allen Hamilton Stock Price Prediction
| BAH Stock | USD 145.96 2.95 2.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
Booz Allen Hamilton stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Booz Allen shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Booz Allen's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Booz Allen and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Booz Allen's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Booz Allen Hamilton, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Booz Allen's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.814 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.4 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.86 | Wall Street Target Price 156.61 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Booz Allen based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Booz stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Booz Allen over a specific investment horizon. Using Booz Allen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Booz Allen Hamilton from the perspective of Booz Allen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Booz Allen using Booz Allen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Booz using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Booz Allen's stock price.
Booz Allen Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Booz Allen's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Booz. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Booz Allen stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Booz Allen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Booz Allen and may potentially protect profits, hedge Booz Allen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 128.2854 | Short Percent 0.0117 | Short Ratio 2.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 145.9446 |
Booz Allen Hamilton Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Booz Allen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Booz. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Booz can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Booz Allen Hamilton. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Booz Allen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Booz Allen.
Booz Allen Implied Volatility | 21.11 |
Booz Allen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Booz Allen Hamilton stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Booz Allen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Booz Allen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Booz Allen's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Booz Allen. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Booz Allen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Booz because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Booz Allen after-hype prediction price | USD 145.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Booz contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Booz Allen Hamilton will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.32% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Booz Allen trading at USD 145.96, that is roughly USD 1.93 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Booz Allen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Booz Allen Hamilton options at the current volatility level of 21.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Booz |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Booz Allen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Booz Allen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Booz Allen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Booz Allen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Booz Allen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Booz Allen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Booz Allen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Booz Allen's historical news coverage. Booz Allen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 144.01 and 147.97, respectively. We have considered Booz Allen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Booz Allen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Booz Allen Hamilton is based on 3 months time horizon.
Booz Allen Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Booz Allen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Booz Allen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Booz Allen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.98 | 0.03 | 0.32 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
145.96 | 145.99 | 0.02 |
|
Booz Allen Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Booz Allen Hamilton is traded for 145.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.32. Booz is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 145.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Booz Allen is about 136.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 145.64. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.26 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 271.21 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.99 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Booz Allen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Booz Allen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Booz Allen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Booz Allen's future price movements. Getting to know how Booz Allen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Booz Allen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HURN | Huron Consulting Group | (1.15) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.78 | (2.27) | 16.64 | |
| CRAI | CRA International | (4.45) | 11 per month | 1.02 | 0.20 | 2.80 | (1.51) | 15.07 | |
| FORR | Forrester Research | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.12 | (5.03) | 14.18 | |
| EXPO | Exponent | 0.31 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.52 | (3.17) | 14.98 | |
| RGP | Resources Connection | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.81 | (4.05) | 12.24 | |
| TRU | TransUnion | (0.30) | 11 per month | 1.89 | (0.04) | 3.59 | (3.08) | 9.68 | |
| EFX | Equifax | (7.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.65 | (3.07) | 12.71 | |
| FCN | FTI Consulting | 0.40 | 10 per month | 1.34 | (0) | 1.74 | (2.60) | 20.25 | |
| ICFI | ICF International | 0.84 | 11 per month | 1.03 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (1.82) | 5.42 | |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | (2.65) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.39 | (1.50) | 6.47 |
Booz Allen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Booz price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Booz using various technical indicators. When you analyze Booz charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Booz Allen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Booz Allen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Booz Allen Hamilton, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Booz Allen based on analysis of Booz Allen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Booz Allen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Booz Allen's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0192 | 0.0221 | 0.021 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.32 | 1.19 | 0.66 |
Story Coverage note for Booz Allen
The number of cover stories for Booz Allen depends on current market conditions and Booz Allen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Booz Allen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Booz Allen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Booz Allen Short Properties
Booz Allen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Booz Allen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Booz Allen Hamilton often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Booz Allen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Booz Allen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 404.9 M |
Check out Booz Allen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Booz Allen Hamilton information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Booz Allen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Complementary Tools for Booz Stock analysis
When running Booz Allen's price analysis, check to measure Booz Allen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Booz Allen is operating at the current time. Most of Booz Allen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Booz Allen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Booz Allen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Booz Allen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities |
Is Booz Allen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Booz Allen. If investors know Booz will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Booz Allen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.814 | Dividend Share 1.88 | Earnings Share 3.1 | Revenue Per Share 78.848 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 |
The market value of Booz Allen Hamilton is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Booz that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Booz Allen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Booz Allen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Booz Allen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Booz Allen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Booz Allen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Booz Allen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Booz Allen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.