Big Lots Stock Price Prediction
| BIG Stock | USD 3.41 0.02 0.58% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Big Lots stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Big Lots shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Big Lots' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Big Lots and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Big Lots' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Big Lots, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Big Lots' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | EPS Estimate Current Year (11.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (8.23) | Wall Street Target Price 4 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.23) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Big Lots based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Big stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Big Lots over a specific investment horizon. Using Big Lots hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Big Lots from the perspective of Big Lots response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Big Lots using Big Lots' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Big using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Big Lots' stock price.
Big Lots Implied Volatility | 150.46 |
Big Lots' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Big Lots stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Big Lots' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Big Lots stock will not fluctuate a lot when Big Lots' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Big Lots. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Big Lots to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Big because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Big Lots after-hype prediction price | USD 3.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Big |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big Lots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Big Lots After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Big Lots at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Big Lots or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Big Lots, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Big Lots Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Big Lots' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Big Lots' historical news coverage. Big Lots' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.16 and 10.12, respectively. We have considered Big Lots' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Big Lots is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Big Lots is based on 3 months time horizon.
Big Lots Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Big Lots is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Big Lots backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Big Lots, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 6.94 | 0.23 | 1.60 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.41 | 3.18 | 6.74 |
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Big Lots Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Big Lots is traded for 3.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.6. Big is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -6.74%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.77%. The volatility of related hype on Big Lots is about 334.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.81. About 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Big Lots has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.88. The entity recorded a loss per share of 16.53. The firm last dividend was issued on the 16th of March 2023. Big Lots had 5:4 split on the 25th of June 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Big Lots Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Big Lots Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Big Lots' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Big Lots' future price movements. Getting to know how Big Lots' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Big Lots may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSMT | PriceSmart | (1.21) | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.02 | 2.35 | (2.27) | 5.76 | |
| TBBB | BBB Foods | (0.34) | 5 per month | 2.28 | 0.07 | 4.11 | (4.08) | 14.99 | |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corp | (7.81) | 7 per month | 1.52 | (0.02) | 1.57 | (1.55) | 9.39 | |
| W | Wayfair | 2.32 | 10 per month | 3.34 | 0 | 5.52 | (5.77) | 17.70 | |
| AN | AutoNation | (2.91) | 10 per month | 1.64 | 0.04 | 3.41 | (2.94) | 8.21 | |
| BQ | Boqii Holding Limited | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 9.38 | (10.00) | 26.79 | |
| JL | J Long Group Limited | (4.55) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 17.57 | (16.87) | 108.40 |
Big Lots Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Big price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Big using various technical indicators. When you analyze Big charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Big Lots Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Big Lots stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Big Lots, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Big Lots based on analysis of Big Lots hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Big Lots's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Big Lots's related companies. | 2020 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0578 | 0.011 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.0359 | 0.49 |
Story Coverage note for Big Lots
The number of cover stories for Big Lots depends on current market conditions and Big Lots' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Big Lots is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Big Lots' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Big Lots Short Properties
Big Lots' future price predictability will typically decrease when Big Lots' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Big Lots often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Big Lots' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Big Lots' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.4 M |
Check out Big Lots Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Big Stock please use our How to Invest in Big Lots guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Big Stock analysis
When running Big Lots' price analysis, check to measure Big Lots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big Lots is operating at the current time. Most of Big Lots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big Lots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big Lots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big Lots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Earnings Share (16.53) | Revenue Per Share 161.965 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.08) |
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Big Lots is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.