Big Lots Stock Volatility
| BIG Stock | USD 3.66 0.23 6.71% |
Big Lots secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0872, which signifies that the company had a -0.0872% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Big Lots exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Big Lots' risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Mean Deviation of 4.84 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Big Lots' volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Big Lots Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Big daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Big's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Big Lots volatility.
Big |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Big Lots can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Big Lots at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Big stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Big Lots' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against Big Stock
| 0.72 | F | Ford Motor Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | BWMX | Betterware De Mexico Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | BARK | Original Bark Financial Report 6th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | BBY | Best Buy Financial Report 23rd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Big Lots Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Big Lots' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Big stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Big stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Big Lots's beta of 3.72 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Big Lots stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Big Lots is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Big Lots' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Big Lots' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Big Lots Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Big Lots correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Big Beta |
Big standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 6.95 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Big Lots's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Big Lots' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in big stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Big Lots.
Using Big Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Big Lots grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Big Lots at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Big Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Big Lots' position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Big Lots will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Big Lots' PUT expiring on 2024-04-19
Profit |
| Big Lots Price At Expiration |
Current Big Lots Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $12.5 | -0.9836 | 0.0211 | 2 | 2024-04-19 | 8.7 - 9.0 | 8.6 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $7.5 | -0.8242 | 0.1203 | 367 | 2024-04-19 | 3.7 - 4.0 | 4.0 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $5.0 | -0.9642 | 0.1279 | 1631 | 2024-04-19 | 1.25 - 1.5 | 1.35 | View |
Big Lots Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Big Lots stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Big Lots' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Big Lots' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Big Lots' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Big Lots' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Big Lots' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Big Lots' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Big Lots' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Big Lots Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Big Lots Projected Return Density Against Market
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.7155 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Big Lots will likely underperform.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Big Lots or Broadline Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Big Lots' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Big stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Big Lots has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Big Lots Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Big Lots Stock Risk Measures
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Big Lots is -1146.55. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 48.36 and standard deviation of 6.95. The mean deviation of Big Lots is currently at 4.86. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.85 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Big Lots Stock Return Volatility
Big Lots historical daily return volatility represents how much of Big Lots stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company has volatility of 6.954% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6214% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Big Lots Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Big Lots or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Big Lots may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Big's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Big Lots and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Big Lots fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 88.5 M | 84 M | |
| Market Cap | 1.5 B | 1 B |
Big Lots' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Big Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Big Lots' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Big Lots' volatility to invest better
Higher Big Lots' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Big Lots stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Big Lots stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Big Lots investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Big Lots' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Big Lots' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Big Lots Investment Opportunity
Big Lots has a volatility of 6.95 and is 11.21 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Big Lots is higher than 61 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Big Lots to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Big Lots to be traded at $4.58 in 90 days.Weak diversification
The correlation between Big Lots and NYA is 0.33 (i.e., Weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Big Lots and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Big Lots Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Big Lots' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Big Lots' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Big Lots stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.16) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 4.84 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,101) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.86 | |||
| Variance | 47.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Big Lots Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
| Ford vs. Big Lots | ||
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| Visa vs. Big Lots | ||
| Salesforce vs. Big Lots | ||
| Citigroup vs. Big Lots | ||
| Microsoft vs. Big Lots | ||
| Alphabet vs. Big Lots | ||
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Big Lots as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Big Lots' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Big Lots' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Big Lots.
When determining whether Big Lots is a strong investment it is important to analyze Big Lots' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Big Lots' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Big Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Big Lots. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product. For more detail on how to invest in Big Stock please use our How to Invest in Big Lots guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Complementary Tools for Big Stock analysis
When running Big Lots' price analysis, check to measure Big Lots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big Lots is operating at the current time. Most of Big Lots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big Lots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big Lots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big Lots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Earnings Share (15.91) | Revenue Per Share 161.965 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.07) |
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Big Lots is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.