Peabody Energy Corp Stock Price Prediction
| BTU Stock | USD 23.91 0.17 0.71% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Peabody Energy Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Peabody Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Peabody Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Peabody Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Peabody Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Peabody Energy Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Peabody Energy's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.48 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.7 | Wall Street Target Price 28.4 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Peabody Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Peabody stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Peabody Energy over a specific investment horizon. Using Peabody Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Peabody Energy Corp from the perspective of Peabody Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Peabody Energy using Peabody Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Peabody using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Peabody Energy's stock price.
Peabody Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Peabody Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Peabody. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Peabody Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Peabody Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Peabody Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Peabody Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.8908 | Short Percent 0.1797 | Short Ratio 4.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 16.8 M | 50 Day MA 24.4968 |
Peabody Energy Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Peabody Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Peabody. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Peabody can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Peabody Energy Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Peabody Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Peabody Energy.
Peabody Energy Implied Volatility | 38.7 |
Peabody Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Peabody Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Peabody Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Peabody Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Peabody Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Peabody Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Peabody Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Peabody because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Peabody Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 24.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Peabody contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Peabody Energy Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.42% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Peabody Energy trading at USD 23.91, that is roughly USD 0.58 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Peabody Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Peabody Energy Corp options at the current volatility level of 38.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Peabody |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Peabody Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Peabody Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Peabody Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Peabody Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Peabody Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Peabody Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Peabody Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Peabody Energy's historical news coverage. Peabody Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.35 and 25.67, respectively. We have considered Peabody Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Peabody Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Peabody Energy Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Peabody Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Peabody Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Peabody Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Peabody Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.66 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.91 | 24.01 | 0.42 |
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Peabody Energy Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Peabody Energy Corp is traded for 23.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Peabody is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 103.75%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Peabody Energy is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.91. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.87 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 760 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.69 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Peabody Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Peabody Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Peabody Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Peabody Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Peabody Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Peabody Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITAYY | Indo Tambangraya Megah | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | (0.01) | 7.62 | (5.08) | 17.96 | |
| ADOOY | Adaro Energy Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.68 | 0.03 | 6.30 | (5.14) | 14.06 |
Peabody Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Peabody price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Peabody using various technical indicators. When you analyze Peabody charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Peabody Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Peabody Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Peabody Energy Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Peabody Energy based on analysis of Peabody Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Peabody Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Peabody Energy's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00823 | 0.007818 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.69 | 0.78 |
Story Coverage note for Peabody Energy
The number of cover stories for Peabody Energy depends on current market conditions and Peabody Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Peabody Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Peabody Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Peabody Energy Short Properties
Peabody Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Peabody Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Peabody Energy Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Peabody Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Peabody Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 154.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 969.3 M |
Check out Peabody Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Complementary Tools for Peabody Stock analysis
When running Peabody Energy's price analysis, check to measure Peabody Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Peabody Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Peabody Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Peabody Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Peabody Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Peabody Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Peabody Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Peabody Energy. If investors know Peabody will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Peabody Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | Dividend Share 0.225 | Earnings Share 5 | Revenue Per Share 35.95 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.24) |
The market value of Peabody Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Peabody that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Peabody Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Peabody Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Peabody Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Peabody Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Peabody Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Peabody Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Peabody Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.