Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Prediction

CBSH Stock  USD 50.42  0.48  0.94%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Commerce Bancshares' stock price is under 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 18th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling a stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

62

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Commerce Bancshares stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Commerce Bancshares shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Commerce Bancshares' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Commerce Bancshares' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Commerce Bancshares, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Commerce Bancshares' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.16)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.76
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.29
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.39
Wall Street Target Price
54.64
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Commerce Bancshares based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Commerce stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Commerce Bancshares over a specific investment horizon. Using Commerce Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commerce Bancshares from the perspective of Commerce Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Commerce Bancshares using Commerce Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Commerce using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Commerce Bancshares' stock price.

Commerce Bancshares Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Commerce Bancshares' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Commerce. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Commerce Bancshares stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Commerce Bancshares may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Commerce Bancshares and may potentially protect profits, hedge Commerce Bancshares with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
50.245
Short Percent
0.0187
Short Ratio
4.65
Shares Short Prior Month
2.2 M
50 Day MA
52.393

Commerce Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Commerce Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commerce. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commerce can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commerce Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Commerce Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Commerce Bancshares.

Commerce Bancshares Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commerce Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commerce Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commerce Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Commerce Bancshares. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Commerce Bancshares to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Commerce because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Commerce Bancshares after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 50.71  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Commerce contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Commerce Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Commerce Bancshares trading at USD 50.42, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Commerce Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Commerce Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Commerce Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
50.0751.4352.79
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
47.4648.8250.18
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.7151.3356.98
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.750.800.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commerce Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commerce Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commerce Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Commerce Bancshares.

Commerce Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Commerce Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commerce Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commerce Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Commerce Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Commerce Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commerce Bancshares' historical news coverage. Commerce Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.35 and 52.07, respectively. We have considered Commerce Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
50.42
50.71
After-hype Price
52.07
Upside
Commerce Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commerce Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.

Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commerce Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commerce Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commerce Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
1.35
  0.07 
  0.07 
11 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
50.42
50.71
0.12 
217.74  
Notes

Commerce Bancshares Hype Timeline

Commerce Bancshares is currently traded for 50.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Commerce is projected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 50.71. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.12% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Commerce Bancshares is about 227.85% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 50.35. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Commerce Bancshares was currently reported as 22.57. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of March 2024. Commerce Bancshares had 105:100 split on the 1st of December 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.

Commerce Bancshares Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Commerce Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Commerce Bancshares rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commerce Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Commerce Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Commerce price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commerce using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commerce charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Commerce Bancshares Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Commerce Bancshares stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Commerce Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares based on analysis of Commerce Bancshares hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Commerce Bancshares's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Commerce Bancshares's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio15.0414.5611.03
Short Term Coverage Ratios0.20.170.16

Story Coverage note for Commerce Bancshares

The number of cover stories for Commerce Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Commerce Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commerce Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commerce Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Commerce Bancshares Short Properties

Commerce Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Commerce Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Commerce Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Commerce Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commerce Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding130.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments10.4 B
When determining whether Commerce Bancshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commerce Bancshares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commerce Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commerce Bancshares Stock:
Check out Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Commerce Stock analysis

When running Commerce Bancshares' price analysis, check to measure Commerce Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commerce Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Commerce Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commerce Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commerce Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Commerce Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.16)
Dividend Share
1.028
Earnings Share
3.64
Revenue Per Share
11.936
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.03
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commerce Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.