Century Aluminum Stock Price Prediction
| CENX Stock | USD 17.42 0.09 0.51% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
75
Oversold | Overbought |
Century Aluminum stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Century Aluminum shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Century Aluminum's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Century Aluminum and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Century Aluminum's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Century Aluminum, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Century Aluminum's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.08) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.02) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.94 | Wall Street Target Price 14 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Century Aluminum based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Century stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Century Aluminum over a specific investment horizon. Using Century Aluminum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Century Aluminum from the perspective of Century Aluminum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Century Aluminum using Century Aluminum's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Century using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Century Aluminum's stock price.
Century Aluminum Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Century Aluminum's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Century. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Century Aluminum stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Century Aluminum may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Century Aluminum and may potentially protect profits, hedge Century Aluminum with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.5665 | Short Percent 0.1696 | Short Ratio 5.39 | Shares Short Prior Month 7 M | 50 Day MA 12.91 |
Century Aluminum Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Century Aluminum's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Century. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Century can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Century Aluminum. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Century Aluminum's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Century Aluminum.
Century Aluminum Implied Volatility | 181.27 |
Century Aluminum's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Century Aluminum stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Century Aluminum's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Century Aluminum stock will not fluctuate a lot when Century Aluminum's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Century Aluminum. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Century Aluminum to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Century because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Century Aluminum after-hype prediction price | USD 17.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Century |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Century Aluminum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Century Aluminum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Century Aluminum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Century Aluminum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Century Aluminum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Century Aluminum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Century Aluminum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Century Aluminum's historical news coverage. Century Aluminum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.30 and 21.30, respectively. We have considered Century Aluminum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Century Aluminum is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Century Aluminum is based on 3 months time horizon.
Century Aluminum Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Century Aluminum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Century Aluminum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Century Aluminum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.93 | 3.50 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 6 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.42 | 17.80 | 2.18 |
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Century Aluminum Hype Timeline
Century Aluminum is currently traded for 17.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Century is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 2.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.93%. The volatility of related hype on Century Aluminum is about 2692.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.54. The company currently holds 503.4 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.99, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Century Aluminum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Century Aluminum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Century Aluminum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Century Aluminum's future price movements. Getting to know how Century Aluminum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Century Aluminum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum | 2.66 | 11 per month | 1.83 | 0.25 | 3.61 | (3.15) | 10.30 | |
| CMC | Commercial Metals | 0.44 | 11 per month | 1.19 | 0.07 | 2.78 | (2.14) | 7.74 | |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | 0.31 | 12 per month | 1.10 | 0.16 | 3.64 | (2.06) | 9.18 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | (5.00) | 11 per month | 0.85 | 0.09 | 1.93 | (1.78) | 15.51 | |
| SCHN | SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES | 2.24 | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.09 | 3.12 | (3.22) | 13.80 |
Century Aluminum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Century price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Century using various technical indicators. When you analyze Century charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Century Aluminum Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Century Aluminum stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Century Aluminum, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Century Aluminum based on analysis of Century Aluminum hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Century Aluminum's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Century Aluminum's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.009817 | 0.014 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.51 | 0.5 |
Story Coverage note for Century Aluminum
The number of cover stories for Century Aluminum depends on current market conditions and Century Aluminum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Century Aluminum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Century Aluminum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Century Aluminum Short Properties
Century Aluminum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Century Aluminum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Century Aluminum often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Century Aluminum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Century Aluminum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 90.3 M |
Check out Century Aluminum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Century Stock please use our How to Invest in Century Aluminum guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Century Stock analysis
When running Century Aluminum's price analysis, check to measure Century Aluminum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Century Aluminum is operating at the current time. Most of Century Aluminum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Century Aluminum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Century Aluminum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Century Aluminum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Century Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Century Aluminum. If investors know Century will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Century Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share 23.652 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.012 |
The market value of Century Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Century that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Century Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Century Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Century Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Century Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Century Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Century Aluminum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Century Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.