Cf Industries Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| CF Stock | USD 77.80 0.05 0.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
63
Oversold | Overbought |
CF Industries Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of CF Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of CF Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of CF Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from CF Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CF Industries Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting CF Industries' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.79 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.12 | Wall Street Target Price 85.58 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.57 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of CF Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The CF Industries stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on CF Industries over a specific investment horizon. Using CF Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CF Industries Holdings from the perspective of CF Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CF Industries using CF Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CF Industries using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CF Industries' stock price.
CF Industries Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in CF Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards CF Industries. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of CF Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long CF Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CF Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge CF Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 79.5099 | Short Percent 0.0385 | Short Ratio 1.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.5 M | 50 Day MA 81.1376 |
CF Industries Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CF Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CF Industries. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CF Industries can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CF Industries Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CF Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CF Industries.
CF Industries Implied Volatility | 92.71 |
CF Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CF Industries Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CF Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CF Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when CF Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in CF Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CF Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CF Industries because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CF Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 77.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CF Industries contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CF Industries Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.79% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With CF Industries trading at USD 77.8, that is roughly USD 4.51 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CF Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring CF Industries Holdings options at the current volatility level of 92.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
CF Industries |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CF Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CF Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CF Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CF Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CF Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CF Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CF Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CF Industries' historical news coverage. CF Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 76.20 and 79.40, respectively. We have considered CF Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CF Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CF Industries Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
CF Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CF Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CF Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CF Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.60 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
77.80 | 77.80 | 0.00 |
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CF Industries Hype Timeline
As of April 18, 2024 CF Industries Holdings is listed for 77.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. CF Industries is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on CF Industries is about 2133.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 77.81. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of CF Industries was currently reported as 30.38. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.64. CF Industries Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.84. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2024. The firm had 5:1 split on the 18th of June 2015. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out CF Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CF Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CF Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CF Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how CF Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CF Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPI | Intrepid Potash | 0.05 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.49 | (4.67) | 16.61 | |
| CTVA | Corteva | (0.03) | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 2.69 | (1.89) | 23.64 | |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings | 0.41 | 11 per month | 1.67 | (0.01) | 2.59 | (2.44) | 9.82 | |
| ICL | ICL Israel Chemicals | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.19 | (0) | 4.53 | (3.12) | 10.65 |
CF Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CF Industries price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CF Industries using various technical indicators. When you analyze CF Industries charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CF Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CF Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CF Industries Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CF Industries based on analysis of CF Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CF Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CF Industries's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0171 | 0.0177 | 0.0202 | 0.0142 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.33 | 1.55 | 2.32 | 1.37 |
Story Coverage note for CF Industries
The number of cover stories for CF Industries depends on current market conditions and CF Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CF Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CF Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CF Industries Short Properties
CF Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when CF Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CF Industries Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CF Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CF Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 193.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Check out CF Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the CF Industries Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CF Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Complementary Tools for CF Industries Stock analysis
When running CF Industries' price analysis, check to measure CF Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CF Industries is operating at the current time. Most of CF Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CF Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CF Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CF Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CF Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 7.84 | Revenue Per Share 34.304 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.40) |
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.