Cognex Stock Price Prediction
CGNX Stock | USD 39.54 0.37 0.94% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Cognex stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cognex shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cognex's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cognex and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cognex's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cognex, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Cognex's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.14 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.78 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.19 | Wall Street Target Price 46.53 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cognex based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Cognex stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Cognex over a specific investment horizon. Using Cognex hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cognex from the perspective of Cognex response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cognex using Cognex's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cognex using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cognex's stock price.
Cognex Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Cognex's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cognex. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cognex stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Cognex may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cognex and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cognex with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 41.9396 | Short Percent 0.0287 | Short Ratio 3.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.5 M | 50 Day MA 39.9762 |
Cognex Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cognex's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cognex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cognex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cognex. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cognex's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cognex.
Cognex Implied Volatility | 42.81 |
Cognex's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cognex stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cognex's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cognex stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cognex's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Cognex. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cognex to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cognex because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cognex after-hype prediction price | USD 39.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cognex contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cognex will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.68% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Cognex trading at USD 39.54, that is roughly USD 1.06 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cognex's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cognex options at the current volatility level of 42.81%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cognex |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cognex's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cognex After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cognex at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cognex or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cognex, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Cognex Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cognex's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cognex's historical news coverage. Cognex's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.70 and 41.52, respectively. We have considered Cognex's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cognex is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cognex is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cognex Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cognex is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cognex backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cognex, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.93 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
39.54 | 39.61 | 0.18 |
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Cognex Hype Timeline
Cognex is currently traded for 39.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.14. Cognex is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 39.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Cognex is about 127.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.40. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 837.55 M. Net Income was 113.23 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 721.9 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Cognex Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cognex Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cognex's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cognex's future price movements. Getting to know how Cognex's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cognex may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
ESE | ESCO Technologies | (0.04) | 10 per month | 1.79 | (0.03) | 2.52 | (2.61) | 8.36 | |
GNSS | Genasys | (0.20) | 7 per month | 3.07 | 0.07 | 8.43 | (5.17) | 25.55 | |
CPTNW | Cepton Inc | 0.0003 | 4 per month | 12.09 | 0.06 | 26.25 | (24.75) | 76.03 | |
MKSI | MKS Instruments | (5.80) | 9 per month | 2.42 | 0.01 | 4.28 | (3.95) | 10.33 |
Cognex Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cognex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cognex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cognex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Cognex Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cognex stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cognex, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cognex based on analysis of Cognex hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cognex's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cognex's related companies. 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.003153 | 0.005621 | 0.006826 | 0.0133 | Price To Sales Ratio | 13.23 | 8.12 | 8.58 | 6.07 |
Story Coverage note for Cognex
The number of cover stories for Cognex depends on current market conditions and Cognex's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cognex is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cognex's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cognex Short Properties
Cognex's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cognex's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cognex often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cognex's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cognex's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 173.4 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 332 M |
Check out Cognex Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Cognex Stock please use our How to Invest in Cognex guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for Cognex Stock analysis
When running Cognex's price analysis, check to measure Cognex's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cognex is operating at the current time. Most of Cognex's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cognex's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cognex's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cognex to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cognex's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cognex. If investors know Cognex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cognex listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Dividend Share 0.285 | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share 4.862 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
The market value of Cognex is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cognex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cognex's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cognex's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cognex's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cognex's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cognex's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cognex is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cognex's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.