Choice Hotels International Stock Price Prediction
| CHH Stock | USD 119.06 1.92 1.64% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
Choice Hotels Intern stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Choice Hotels shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Choice Hotels' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Choice Hotels and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Choice Hotels' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Choice Hotels International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Choice Hotels' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.44) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.38 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.9 | Wall Street Target Price 129.36 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Choice Hotels based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Choice stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Choice Hotels over a specific investment horizon. Using Choice Hotels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Choice Hotels International from the perspective of Choice Hotels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Choice Hotels using Choice Hotels' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Choice using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Choice Hotels' stock price.
Choice Hotels Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Choice Hotels' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Choice. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Choice Hotels stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Choice Hotels may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Choice Hotels and may potentially protect profits, hedge Choice Hotels with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 120.0069 | Short Percent 0.1761 | Short Ratio 6.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.3 M | 50 Day MA 120.6734 |
Choice Hotels Intern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Choice Hotels' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Choice. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Choice can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Choice Hotels International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Choice Hotels' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Choice Hotels.
Choice Hotels Implied Volatility | 30.33 |
Choice Hotels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Choice Hotels International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Choice Hotels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Choice Hotels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Choice Hotels' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Choice Hotels. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Choice Hotels to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Choice because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Choice Hotels after-hype prediction price | USD 119.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Choice contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Choice Hotels International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.9% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Choice Hotels trading at USD 119.06, that is roughly USD 2.26 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Choice Hotels' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Choice Hotels International options at the current volatility level of 30.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Choice |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Choice Hotels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Choice Hotels After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Choice Hotels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Choice Hotels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Choice Hotels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Choice Hotels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Choice Hotels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Choice Hotels' historical news coverage. Choice Hotels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.42 and 120.72, respectively. We have considered Choice Hotels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Choice Hotels is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Choice Hotels Intern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Choice Hotels Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Choice Hotels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Choice Hotels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Choice Hotels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.66 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 13 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
119.06 | 119.07 | 0.01 |
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Choice Hotels Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Choice Hotels Intern is traded for 119.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Choice is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 119.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 114.48%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Choice Hotels is about 149.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.04. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.54 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 258.51 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 700.05 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Choice Hotels Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Choice Hotels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Choice Hotels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Choice Hotels' future price movements. Getting to know how Choice Hotels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Choice Hotels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| H | Hyatt Hotels | (3.03) | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.07 | 2.20 | (1.67) | 13.48 | |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | (2.15) | 9 per month | 1.04 | (0.01) | 1.44 | (1.65) | 4.93 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | (0.30) | 10 per month | 1.01 | 0 | 1.89 | (2.15) | 10.87 | |
| MAR | Marriott International | (2.68) | 11 per month | 1.49 | (0.04) | 1.95 | (1.58) | 7.54 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | 0.68 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.90 | (1.73) | 4.64 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | 0.80 | 7 per month | 2.15 | 0.09 | 4.95 | (4.85) | 13.51 |
Choice Hotels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Choice price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Choice using various technical indicators. When you analyze Choice charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Choice Hotels Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Choice Hotels stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Choice Hotels International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Choice Hotels based on analysis of Choice Hotels hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Choice Hotels's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Choice Hotels's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.002899 | 0.008544 | 0.009898 | 0.009404 | Price To Sales Ratio | 8.08 | 4.39 | 3.69 | 4.9 |
Story Coverage note for Choice Hotels
The number of cover stories for Choice Hotels depends on current market conditions and Choice Hotels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Choice Hotels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Choice Hotels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Choice Hotels Short Properties
Choice Hotels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Choice Hotels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Choice Hotels International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Choice Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Choice Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.8 M |
Check out Choice Hotels Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Choice Hotels Intern information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Choice Hotels' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Choice Stock analysis
When running Choice Hotels' price analysis, check to measure Choice Hotels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Choice Hotels is operating at the current time. Most of Choice Hotels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Choice Hotels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Choice Hotels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Choice Hotels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Choice Hotels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Choice Hotels. If investors know Choice will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Choice Hotels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.44) | Dividend Share 1.15 | Earnings Share 5.07 | Revenue Per Share 14.646 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
The market value of Choice Hotels Intern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Choice that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Choice Hotels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Choice Hotels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Choice Hotels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Choice Hotels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Choice Hotels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Choice Hotels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Choice Hotels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.