Coherent Stock Price Prediction
| COHR Stock | USD 51.00 0.81 1.56% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Coherent stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Coherent shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Coherent's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Coherent and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Coherent's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Coherent, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Coherent's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.38 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.48 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.03 | Wall Street Target Price 66.67 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Coherent based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Coherent stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Coherent over a specific investment horizon. Using Coherent hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Coherent from the perspective of Coherent response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Coherent using Coherent's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Coherent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Coherent's stock price.
Coherent Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Coherent's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Coherent. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Coherent stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Coherent may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Coherent and may potentially protect profits, hedge Coherent with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 44.6618 | Short Percent 0.0372 | Short Ratio 2.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.8 M | 50 Day MA 59.722 |
Coherent Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Coherent's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Coherent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Coherent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Coherent. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Coherent's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Coherent.
Coherent Implied Volatility | 208.94 |
Coherent's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Coherent stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Coherent's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Coherent stock will not fluctuate a lot when Coherent's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Coherent. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Coherent to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Coherent because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Coherent after-hype prediction price | USD 51.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Coherent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Coherent will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 13.06% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Coherent trading at USD 51.0, that is roughly USD 6.66 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Coherent's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Coherent options at the current volatility level of 208.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Coherent |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coherent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Coherent After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Coherent at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Coherent or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Coherent, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Coherent Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Coherent's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Coherent's historical news coverage. Coherent's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.74 and 54.50, respectively. We have considered Coherent's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Coherent is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Coherent is based on 3 months time horizon.
Coherent Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Coherent is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Coherent backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Coherent, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 3.39 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 12 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
51.00 | 51.12 | 0.37 |
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Coherent Hype Timeline
Coherent is currently traded for 51.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Coherent is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 51.12 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Coherent is about 2118.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.97. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.16 B. Net Loss for the year was (259.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.78 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Coherent Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Coherent Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Coherent's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Coherent's future price movements. Getting to know how Coherent's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Coherent may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ESE | ESCO Technologies | (1.24) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.52 | (2.61) | 8.36 | |
| MLAB | Mesa Laboratories | 1.05 | 8 per month | 3.31 | 0.02 | 5.64 | (4.69) | 18.59 | |
| VPG | Vishay Precision Group | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.01 | 2.58 | (2.75) | 14.50 | |
| ST | Sensata Technologies Holding | 0.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.25 | (3.17) | 12.97 | |
| SOTK | Sono Tek Corp | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.95 | (4.80) | 14.29 | |
| NOVT | Novanta | (0.69) | 9 per month | 2.18 | (0.02) | 3.19 | (3.79) | 10.33 | |
| FTV | Fortive Corp | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.63 | 0.10 | 1.61 | (1.29) | 6.80 |
Coherent Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Coherent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Coherent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Coherent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Coherent Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Coherent stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Coherent, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Coherent based on analysis of Coherent hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Coherent's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Coherent's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.005813 | 0.003935 | 0.003542 | 0.003248 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.79 | 1.36 | 1.22 | 1.54 |
Story Coverage note for Coherent
The number of cover stories for Coherent depends on current market conditions and Coherent's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Coherent is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Coherent's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Coherent Short Properties
Coherent's future price predictability will typically decrease when Coherent's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Coherent often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Coherent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Coherent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 137.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 833.3 M |
Check out Coherent Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Coherent Stock, please use our How to Invest in Coherent guide.Note that the Coherent information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Coherent's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for Coherent Stock analysis
When running Coherent's price analysis, check to measure Coherent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Coherent is operating at the current time. Most of Coherent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Coherent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Coherent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Coherent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Coherent's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Coherent. If investors know Coherent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Coherent listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | Earnings Share (2.82) | Revenue Per Share 31.913 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets 0.0153 |
The market value of Coherent is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Coherent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Coherent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Coherent's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Coherent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Coherent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Coherent's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Coherent is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Coherent's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.