Encore Capital Group Stock Price Prediction

ECPG Stock  USD 44.87  1.24  2.69%   
As of 19th of March 2024, the relative strength indicator of Encore Capital's share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Encore Capital's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

45

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Encore Capital Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Encore Capital shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Encore Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Encore Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Encore Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Encore Capital Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Encore Capital's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.35)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.29
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.96
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.84
Wall Street Target Price
60.75
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Encore Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Encore stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Encore Capital over a specific investment horizon. Using Encore Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Encore Capital Group from the perspective of Encore Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Encore Capital using Encore Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Encore using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Encore Capital's stock price.

Encore Capital Implied Volatility

    
  69.66  
Encore Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Encore Capital Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Encore Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Encore Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Encore Capital's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Encore Capital. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Encore Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Encore because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Encore Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 46.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Encore contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Encore Capital Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Encore Capital trading at USD 44.87, that is roughly USD 1.95 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Encore Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Encore Capital Group options at the current volatility level of 69.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Encore Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encore Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Encore Capital in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
41.5051.5453.77
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
44.5146.7448.98
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
57.5663.2570.21
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.640.971.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Encore Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Encore Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Encore Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Encore Capital Group.

Encore Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Encore Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Encore Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Encore Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Encore Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Encore Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Encore Capital's historical news coverage. Encore Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.05 and 48.51, respectively. We have considered Encore Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
44.87
46.28
After-hype Price
48.51
Upside
Encore Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Encore Capital Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Encore Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Encore Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Encore Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Encore Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
2.27
  0.25 
  0.04 
7 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
44.87
46.28
0.37 
127.53  
Notes

Encore Capital Hype Timeline

Encore Capital Group is currently traded for 44.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Encore is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 46.28 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 127.53%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.37% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Encore Capital is about 732.26% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 44.83. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.22 B. Net Loss for the year was (206.49 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.4 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Encore Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Encore Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Encore Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Encore Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Encore Capital rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Encore Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VVisa Class A 1.11 9 per month 0.65  0.01  1.27 (1.22) 3.70 
DHILDiamond Hill Investment(4.80)9 per month 0.00 (0.15) 2.51 (2.66) 11.55 
DISTDistoken Acquisition 0.03 1 per month 0.79 (0.13) 0.56 (0.66) 11.91 
ABAllianceBernstein Holding LP 0.62 11 per month 1.40  0.03  2.87 (2.10) 7.67 
ACAssociated Capital Group 0.62 7 per month 0.00 (0.17) 1.50 (1.91) 4.76 
BKBank Of New 0.57 6 per month 0.77  0.02  1.49 (1.12) 7.14 
BNBrookfield Corp 0.07 10 per month 1.35  0.03  2.64 (2.19) 9.85 
BXBlackstone Group(1.19)8 per month 1.58  0.01  2.41 (2.50) 11.91 
CGCarlyle Group(0.31)10 per month 1.41  0.09  3.10 (2.42) 12.87 
DBDeutsche Bank AG 0.18 9 per month 1.52  0.04  2.29 (2.53) 10.46 

Encore Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Encore price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Encore using various technical indicators. When you analyze Encore charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Encore Capital Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Encore Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Encore Capital Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Encore Capital based on analysis of Encore Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Encore Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Encore Capital's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0013650.001296
Price To Sales Ratio0.981.19

Story Coverage note for Encore Capital

The number of cover stories for Encore Capital depends on current market conditions and Encore Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Encore Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Encore Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Encore Capital Short Properties

Encore Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Encore Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Encore Capital Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Encore Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Encore Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding23.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments158.4 M
When determining whether Encore Capital Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Encore Capital's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Encore Capital's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Encore Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Encore Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for Encore Stock analysis

When running Encore Capital's price analysis, check to measure Encore Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Encore Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Encore Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Encore Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Encore Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Encore Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Encore Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Encore Capital. If investors know Encore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Encore Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.35)
Earnings Share
(8.72)
Revenue Per Share
51.655
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.185
Return On Assets
0.0374
The market value of Encore Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Encore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Encore Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Encore Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Encore Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Encore Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Encore Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Encore Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Encore Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.